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Does Rain Help the Republicans? Theory and Evidence on Turnout and the Vote

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Author Info
 Knack, Steve

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Abstract

Conventional political wisdom holds that inclement weather on election day reduces turnout and helps elect Republican candidates. Analysis of National Climatic Data Center weather records and National Election Studies survey data for 1984, 1986, and 1988 refutes the latter hypothesis: interaction variables based on various measures of partisanship and election-day rainfall show no evidence of partisan differences in the turnout-deterring impact of inclement weather. Furthermore, rainfall does not significantly reduce the probability of voting for the National Election Studies samples as a whole, but only among those respondents scoring low on the standard National Election Studies civic duty indicator. Copyright 1994 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Public Choice.

Volume (Year): 79 (1994)
Issue (Month): 1-2 (April)
Pages: 187-209
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Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:79:y:1994:i:1-2:p:187-209

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  1. Helios Herrera & César Martinelli, 2006. "Group Formation and Voter Participation," Levine's Bibliography 666156000000000463, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Christine Fauvelle-Aymar & Abel François, 2003. "Campagne électorale, préférences politiques et participation. Une étude empirique sur les élections législatives françaises de 1997," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques j04009, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1). [Downloadable!]
  3. Jens Hainmueller & Holger Lutz Kern, 2005. "Incumbency Effects in German and British Elections: A Quasi- Experimental Approach," Public Economics 0505009, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Garey C. Durden & Richard J. Cebula & Patricia Gaynor, 2007. "The Impact of Social Conditioning (Internal Motivation) on the Probability of Voting," Working Papers 07-05, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University. [Downloadable!]
  5. Richard J. Cebula & Garey C. Durden, 2007. "Expected Benefits of Voting and Voter Turnout," Working Papers 07-06, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University. [Downloadable!]
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