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Does Rain Help the Republicans? Theory and Evidence on Turnout and the Vote

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  • Knack, Steve

Abstract

Conventional political wisdom holds that inclement weather on election day reduces turnout and helps elect Republican candidates. Analysis of National Climatic Data Center weather records and National Election Studies survey data for 1984, 1986, and 1988 refutes the latter hypothesis: interaction variables based on various measures of partisanship and election-day rainfall show no evidence of partisan differences in the turnout-deterring impact of inclement weather. Furthermore, rainfall does not significantly reduce the probability of voting for the National Election Studies samples as a whole, but only among those respondents scoring low on the standard National Election Studies civic duty indicator. Copyright 1994 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Public Choice.

Volume (Year): 79 (1994)
Issue (Month): 1-2 (April)
Pages: 187-209

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Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:79:y:1994:i:1-2:p:187-209

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100332

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As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Strange findings about voting for primary day
    by ? in Nudge blog on 2008-05-20 12:00:00
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Cited by:
  1. Raphael Godefroy & Emeric Henry, 2011. "Voter Turnout and Fiscal Policy," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompq, Sciences Po.
  2. Helios Herrera & César Martinelli, 2006. "Group Formation and Voter Participation," Levine's Bibliography 666156000000000463, UCLA Department of Economics.
  3. Martorana, Marco Ferdinando, 2011. "Voting Behaviour in a dynamic perspective: a survey," MPRA Paper 37592, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Christine Fauvelle-Aymar & Abel François, 2003. "Campagne électorale, préférences politiques et participation. Une étude empirique sur les élections législatives françaises de 1997," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques j04009, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
  5. Gary Roseman & E. Stephenson, 2005. "The Effect of Voting Technology on Voter Turnout: Do Computers Scare the Elderly?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 123(1), pages 39-47, April.
  6. Richard J. Cebula & Garey C. Durden & Patricia E. Gaynor, 2008. "The Impact of the Repeat-Voting-Habit Persistence Phenomenon on the Probability of Voting in Presidential Elections," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 75(2), pages 429-440, October.
  7. Cozzi, Guido & Mantovan, Noemi & Sauer, Robert M., 2013. "Does it Pay to Work for Free? Wage Returns and Gender Differences in the Market for Volunteers," Economics Working Paper Series 1330, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
  8. Jens Hainmueller & Holger Lutz Kern, 2005. "Incumbency Effects in German and British Elections: A Quasi- Experimental Approach," Public Economics 0505009, EconWPA.
  9. Gianmarco León, 2013. "Turnout, political preferences and information: Experimental evidence from Perú," Economics Working Papers 1364, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  10. Richard J. Cebula & Garey C. Durden, 2007. "Expected Benefits of Voting and Voter Turnout," Working Papers 07-06, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
  11. Tim Powlowski & Dennis Coates, 2013. "The habit for voting, “civic duty” and travel distance," UMBC Economics Department Working Papers 13-05, UMBC Department of Economics.
  12. Wiberg, Magnus, 2011. "Political participation, regional policy and the location of industry," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(5), pages 465-475, September.
  13. Ade, Florian & Freier, Ronny, 2013. "Divided government versus incumbency externality effect—Quasi-experimental evidence on multiple voting decisions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-20.

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