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Indicators of electoral victory

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  • Pablo Amorós

    ()

  • M. Puy

    ()

Abstract

We study a two-party contest where candidates strategically allocate their campaign resources between two salient issues. We analyze to what extent the following indicators of a party's success predict the electoral victory: (1) the pre-campaign advantage, (2) the advantage on every salient issue, and (3) the advantage on campaign resources. We show that the electoral victory is guaranteed only when a party has a "sufficiently large" advantage on every salient issue. Otherwise no combination of these indicators ensures the electoral victory.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11127-009-9514-z
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Public Choice.

Volume (Year): 144 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (July)
Pages: 239-251

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Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:144:y:2010:i:1:p:239-251

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100332

Related research

Keywords: Election campaign; Salient issues; Majority voting; Ostrogorski paradox; D72; C70;

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  1. Laffond, G. & Laine, J., 2006. "Single-switch preferences and the Ostrogorski paradox," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 49-66, July.
  2. AMOROS, Pablo & PUY, M. Socorro, 2007. "Dialogue or issue divergence in the political campaign?," CORE Discussion Papers 2007084, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
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Cited by:
  1. Josep M. Colomer & Humberto Llavador, 2008. "An Agenda-Setting Model of Electoral Competition," Working Papers 331, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  2. Pablo Amorós & M. Puy, 2013. "Issue convergence or issue divergence in a political campaign?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 155(3), pages 355-371, June.

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