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Age-Specific Variation in Adult Mortality Rates in Developed Countries

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  • Hui Zheng
  • Y. Yang
  • Kenneth Land

Abstract

This paper investigates historical changes in both single-year-of-age adult mortality rates and variation of the single-year mortality rates around expected values within age intervals over the past two centuries in 15 developed countries. We apply an integrated hierarchical age-period-cohort—variance function regression model to data from the human mortality database. We find increasing variation of the single-year rates within broader age intervals over the life course for all countries, but the increasing variation slows down at age 90 and then increases again after age 100 for some countries; the variation significantly declined across cohorts born after the early 20th century; and the variation continuously declined over much of the last two centuries but has substantially increased since 1980. Our further analysis finds the recent increases in mortality variation are not due to increasing proportions of older adults in the population, trends in mortality rates, or disproportionate delays in deaths from degenerative and man-made diseases, but rather due to increasing variations in young and middle-age adults. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Suggested Citation

  • Hui Zheng & Y. Yang & Kenneth Land, 2016. "Age-Specific Variation in Adult Mortality Rates in Developed Countries," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 35(1), pages 49-71, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:35:y:2016:i:1:p:49-71
    DOI: 10.1007/s11113-015-9379-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Hui Zheng, 2020. "Unobserved population heterogeneity and dynamics of health disparities," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 43(34), pages 1009-1048.
    2. Hui Zheng & Jonathan Dirlam & Paola Echave, 2021. "Divergent Trends in the Effects of Early Life Factors on Adult Health," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 40(5), pages 1119-1148, October.

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