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Speculative attacks and currency crises: The Mexican experience

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Author Info
Inci Ötker ()
Ceyla PazarbaÅŸioÄlu ()

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Abstract

By using data from the Mexican economy, this paper estimates a speculative attack model of currency crises in order to identify the role of macroeconomic fundamentals and early warning signals of a potential currency crisis. A deterioration in fundamentals appears to generate high one-step-ahead probabilities for the observed regime changes during the sample period 1982–1994. Particularly, foreign reserve losses, expansionary output, monetary and fiscal policies, an increase in inflation differentials and the share of short-term foreign currency-indexed debt, and an appreciation of the real exchange rate appear to have contributed to the speculative pressures and the associated regime changes. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1996

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/BF01886212
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

Volume (Year): 7 (1996)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 535-552
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Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:7:y:1996:i:1:p:535-552

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Related research
Keywords: Exchange rates; speculative attacks; economic fundamentals; Mexico; B22; S31; F33;

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Goldberg, Linda S., 1991. "Collapsing exchange rate regimes: shocks and biases," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 252-263, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Jeffrey Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1995. "The Collapse of the Mexican Peso: What Have We Learned?," NBER Working Papers 5142, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Blackburn, Keith & Sola, Martin, 1993. " Speculative Currency Attacks and Balance of Payments Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 119-44, June.
  5. Blanco, Herminio & Garber, Peter M, 1986. "Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 148-66, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Goldberg, Linda S., 1994. "Predicting exchange rate crises : Mexico revisited," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3-4), pages 413-430, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Edin, Per-Anders & Vredin, Anders, 1993. "Devaluation Risk in Target Zones: Evidence from the Nordic Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 161-75, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Thomson Fontaine, 2005. "Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies: A Comparative Empirical Treatment," IMF Working Papers 05/13, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Patrick N. Osakwe & Lawrence L. Schembri, 1999. "Real Effects of Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes: An Application to Mexico," Carleton Economic Papers 99-07, Carleton University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Chin-Shien Lin & Haider A. Khan & Ying-Chieh Wang & Ruei-Yuan Chang, 2006. "A New Approach to Modeling Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises : can a machine-learning fuzzy expert system predict the currency crises effectively?," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-411, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]
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