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Robustness of Forecasting Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies with Data Revisions—A Note

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  • Derrick Reagle
  • Dominick Salvatore

Abstract

Data revisions routinely introduced by the World Bank can lead to significant revisions in empirical results. We show this by re-estimating our aggregate indicator for predicting the 1997 Asian crisis utilizing the 1999 and 2004 updates of the 1996 World Bank data and comparing these results to those we obtained (this Journal, 2000) for predicting the same event using the original, unrevised, 1996 World Bank data. Since most data-gathering organizations routinely revise their data, this may represent a much greater problem for policy makers than might be recognized. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005

Suggested Citation

  • Derrick Reagle & Dominick Salvatore, 2005. "Robustness of Forecasting Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies with Data Revisions—A Note," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 209-216, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:16:y:2005:i:2:p:209-216
    DOI: 10.1007/s11079-005-5876-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    2. Salvatore, Dominick, 1999. "Could the Financial Crisis in East Asia Have Been Predicted?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 341-347, May.
    3. Marcelle Chauvet & Fang Dong, 2004. "Leading indicators of country risk and currency crises: the Asian experience," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 89(Q 1), pages 25-37.
    4. World Bank, 2004. "World Development Indicators 2004," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13890, December.
    5. Patterson, K. D. & Heravi, S. M., 1991. "Are different vintages of data on the components of GDP co-integrated? : Some evidence for the United Kingdom," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 409-413, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ali Ari & Raif Cergibozan, 2016. "A Comparison of Currency Crisis Dating Methods: Turkey 1990-2014," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 12(3), pages 19-37.
    2. Tjeerd M. Boonman & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs & Gerard H. Kuper & Alberto Romero, 2019. "Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises with Real-Time Data," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 813-835, September.
    3. Romero Alberto & Kuper Gerard H. & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Boonman Tjeerd, 2017. "Early Warning Systems with Real-Time Data," Working Papers 2017-16, Banco de México.
    4. Lutfa Tilat Ferdous & Khnd Md Mostafa Kamal & Amirul Ahsan & Nhung Hong Thuy Hoang & Munshi Samaduzzaman, 2022. "An Early Warning System for Currency Crises in Emerging Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-25, April.

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