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Betting on own knowledge: Experimental test of overconfidence

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  • Pavlo Blavatskyy

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11166-008-9048-7
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Risk and Uncertainty.

    Volume (Year): 38 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 1 (February)
    Pages: 39-49

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    Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:38:y:2009:i:1:p:39-49

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    Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100299

    Related research

    Keywords: Overconfidence; Underconfidence; Lottery; Experiment; Risk aversion; C91; D81;

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    References

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    1. Cesarini, David & Sandewall, Örjan & Johannesson, Magnus, 2003. "Confidence Interval Estimation Tasks and the Economics of Overconfidence," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 535, Stockholm School of Economics.
    2. Marian Krajc & Andreas Ortmann, 2007. "Are the Unskilled Really That Unaware? An alternative explanation," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp325, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
    3. Soll, Jack B., 1996. "Determinants of Overconfidence and Miscalibration: The Roles of Random Error and Ecological Structure," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 117-137, February.
    4. Kirchler, Erich & Maciejovsky, Boris, 2002. " Simultaneous Over- and Underconfidence: Evidence from Experimental Asset Markets," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 65-85, July.
    5. W. Viscusi & Richard Zeckhauser, 2006. "National survey evidence on disasters and relief: Risk beliefs, self-interest, and compassion," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 13-36, September.
    6. Heath, Chip & Tversky, Amos, 1991. " Preference and Belief: Ambiguity and Competence in Choice under Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 5-28, January.
    7. Charles A. Holt & Susan K. Laury, 2002. "Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1644-1655, December.
    8. Erik Hoelzl & Aldo Rustichini, 2005. "Overconfident: Do You Put Your Money On It?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(503), pages 305-318, 04.
    9. Juslin, Peter, 1994. "The Overconfidence Phenomenon as a Consequence of Informal Experimenter-Guided Selection of Almanac Items," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 226-246, February.
    10. Urs Fischbacher, 2007. "z-Tree: Zurich toolbox for ready-made economic experiments," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 171-178, June.
    11. Dan Lovallo & Colin Camerer, 1999. "Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 306-318, March.
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    Cited by:
    1. Koellinger, Ph.D. & Treffers, T., 2012. "Joy leads to Overconfidence, and a Simple Remedy," ERIM Report Series Research in Management, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasm ERS-2012-001-STR, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    2. Alessandro Innocenti & Tommaso Nannicini & Roberto Ricciuti, 2013. "The Importance of Betting Early," Working Papers 502, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    3. Michailova, Julija, 2010. "Development of the overconfidence measurement instrument for the economic experiment," MPRA Paper 26384, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Aurélien Baillon & Philipp Koellinger & Theresa Treffers, 2014. "Sadder but wiser: The effects of affective states and weather on ambiguity attitudes," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-044/I, Tinbergen Institute.
    5. Thierry Madiès & Marie Claire Villeval & Malgorzata Wasmer, 2013. "Intergenerational Attitudes Towards Strategic Uncertainty and Competition: A Field Experiment in a Swiss Bank," Post-Print halshs-00807436, HAL.
    6. Treffers, T. & Koellinger, Ph.D. & Picot, A.O., 2012. "In the Mood for Risk? A Random-Assignment Experiment Addressing the Effects of Moods on Risk Preferences," ERIM Report Series Research in Management, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasm ERS-2012-014-ORG, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    7. Emin Karagözoglu & Arno Riedl, 2010. "Information, Uncertainty, and Subjective Entitlements in Bargaining," CESifo Working Paper Series 3133, CESifo Group Munich.
    8. Hans-Martin Gaudecker & Arthur Soest & Erik Wengström, 2012. "Experts in experiments," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 159-190, October.
    9. Sandra Ludwig & Julia Nafziger, 2011. "Beliefs about overconfidence," Theory and Decision, Springer, Springer, vol. 70(4), pages 475-500, April.

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