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Is Probability Weighting Sensitive to the Magnitude of Consequences? An Experimental Investigation on Losses

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Author Info
Nathalie Etchart-Vincent ()

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Abstract

Experimental investigations of the probability weighting function over losses are scarce and all involve small payoffs. The paper aims to give new insight into the probability weighting function for losses, by eliciting it through a simple two-stage semi-parametric procedure over more realistic losses, and by investigating its sensitivity to the magnitude of the payoffs. Current data confirm previous evidence of convex utility functions and inverse-S-shaped weighting functions. Still, at least for small probabilities, probability weighting appears to be affected by the size of consequences: the larger the losses, the more aversive the gambles and the more pessimistic the subjects are.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Risk and Uncertainty.

Volume (Year): 28 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 (05)
Pages: 217-235
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Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:28:y:2004:i:3:p:217-235

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100299

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  1. Peter Brooks & Horst Zank, 2005. "Loss Averse Behavior," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 301-325, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Booij, Adam S. & van Praag, Bernard M. S. & van de Kuilen, Gijs, 2009. "A Parametric Analysis of Prospect Theory's Functionals for the General Population," IZA Discussion Papers 4117, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Antoni Bosch-Domènech & Joaquim Silvestre, 2006. "Averting risk in the face of large losses: Bernoulli vs. Tversky and Kahneman," Economics Working Papers 932, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
  4. Zank, Horst & Schmidt, Ulrich & Diecidue, Enrico, 2007. "Parametric Weighting Functions," Economics Working Papers 2007,01, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Marcello Basili & Alain Chateauneuf & Fulvio Fontini, 2004. "Choices under ambiguity with familiar and unfamiliar outcomes," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques b04115, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Mattos, Fabio & Garcia, Philip & Pennings, Joost M.E., 2007. "Insights into Trader Behavior: Risk Aversion and Probability Weighting," 2007 Conference, April 16-17, 2007, Chicago, Illinois 37569, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. [Downloadable!]
  7. Andrea Morone & Ozlem Ozdemir, 2006. "Valuing Protection against Low Probability, High Loss Risks: Experimental Evidence," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2006-34, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group. [Downloadable!]
  8. Han Bleichrodt & Ulrich Schmidt & Horst Zank, 2008. "Additive utility in prospect theory," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0811, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  9. Valerie Seror, 2008. "Fitting observed and theoretical choices - women's choices about prenatal diagnosis of Down syndrome," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 557-577. [Downloadable!]
  10. Horst Zank, 2007. "On the Paradigm of Loss Aversion," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0710, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  11. Nathalie Etchart-Vincent, 2009. "Probability weighting and the ‘level’ and ‘spacing’ of outcomes: An experimental study over losses," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 45-63, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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