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The Likelihood of Various Stock Market Return Distributions, Part 2: Empirical Results

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  • Markowitz, Harry M
  • Usmen, Nilufer

Abstract

The present article shows how Bayesians should shift beliefs among a family of models concerning the probability distribution of daily changes in the Standard & Poor 500 Index, given a particular sample. The preceding article in this issue showed that classical (R. A. Fisher, Neyman-Pearson) inference can be highly misleading for Bayesians, as can the assumption of a diffuse prior. The present article discusses how to bound Bayesian shifts in belief for compound hypotheses generally, as well as the specific shifts in beliefs among simple and compound hypotheses implied by the particular sample. Copyright 1996 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Markowitz, Harry M & Usmen, Nilufer, 1996. "The Likelihood of Various Stock Market Return Distributions, Part 2: Empirical Results," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 221-247, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:13:y:1996:i:3:p:221-47
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    Cited by:

    1. Markowitz, Harry, 2014. "Mean–variance approximations to expected utility," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 346-355.
    2. Kevin Fergusson & Eckhard Platen, 2006. "On the Distributional Characterization of Daily Log-Returns of a World Stock Index," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 19-38.
    3. Ghaffari, N. & Walker, S.G., 2023. "W2 barycenters for radially related distributions," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    4. Ming Chen, James, 2018. "Baryonic Beta Dynamics: An Econophysical Model of Systematic Risk/Dinámica de la Beta Bariónica: Un modelo Econofísico de Riesgo Sistemático," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 36, pages 263-276, Enero.
    5. Lord Mensah & R. K. Avuglah & Vincent Dedu, 2013. "Allocation of Assets on the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE)," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 4(2), pages 108-114, April.
    6. Trapani, Lorenzo, 2016. "Testing for (in)finite moments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 57-68.
    7. Jiang, Chonghui & Ma, Yongkai & An, Yunbi, 2016. "Portfolio selection with a systematic skewness constraint," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 393-405.
    8. Carbajal-De-Nova, Carolina & Venegas-Martínez, Francisco, 2019. "On the paradigm shift of asset pricing models, before and after the global financial crisis: a literature review," Panorama Económico, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, vol. 15(29), pages 7-38, Primer se.
    9. Fergusson, Kevin, 2020. "Less-Expensive Valuation And Reserving Of Long-Dated Variable Annuities When Interest Rates And Mortality Rates Are Stochastic," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(2), pages 381-417, May.
    10. Jalshayin Bhachech & Arnab Chakrabarti & Taisei Kaizoji & Anindya S. Chakrabarti, 2022. "Instability of networks: effects of sampling frequency and extreme fluctuations in financial data," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 95(4), pages 1-14, April.
    11. repec:uts:finphd:40 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Tiago P. Filomena & Miguel A. Lejeune, 2014. "Warm-Start Heuristic for Stochastic Portfolio Optimization with Fixed and Proportional Transaction Costs," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 308-329, April.
    13. Sakae Oya & Teruo Nakatsuma, 2021. "Identification in Bayesian Estimation of the Skewness Matrix in a Multivariate Skew-Elliptical Distribution," Papers 2108.04019, arXiv.org.
    14. Detlef Seese & Christof Weinhardt & Frank Schlottmann (ed.), 2008. "Handbook on Information Technology in Finance," International Handbooks on Information Systems, Springer, number 978-3-540-49487-4, November.
    15. Panayiotis Theodossiou, 1998. "Financial Data and the Skewed Generalized T Distribution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(12-Part-1), pages 1650-1661, December.
    16. Kevin John Fergusson, 2018. "Less-Expensive Pricing and Hedging of Extreme-Maturity Interest Rate Derivatives and Equity Index Options Under the Real-World Measure," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 3-2018.

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