Housing Starts in Canada, Japan, and the United States: Do Forecasters Herd?
AbstractRecent price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using survey data for Canada, Japan, and the United States, we did not find evidence of forecaster herding. On the contrary, forecasters anti-herd and, thereby, tend to intentionally scatter their forecasts around the consensus forecast. The extent of anti-herding seems to vary over time. For Canada and the United States, we found that more pronounced anti-herding leads to lower forecast accuracy. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2012
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics.
Volume (Year): 45 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (October)
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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=102945
Housing starts; Forecasting; Herding; E37; D84; C33;
Other versions of this item:
- Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Housing starts in Canada, Japan, and the United States: Do forecasters herd?," Discussion Papers 320, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
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