Housing Starts in Canada, Japan, and the United States: Do Forecasters Herd?
AbstractRecent price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using survey data for Canada, Japan, and the United States, we did not find evidence of forecaster herding. On the contrary, forecasters anti-herd and, thereby, tend to intentionally scatter their forecasts around the consensus forecast. The extent of anti-herding seems to vary over time. For Canada and the United States, we found that more pronounced anti-herding leads to lower forecast accuracy. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2012
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics.
Volume (Year): 45 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (October)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=102945
Housing starts; Forecasting; Herding; E37; D84; C33;
Other versions of this item:
- Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Housing starts in Canada, Japan, and the United States: Do forecasters herd?," Discussion Papers 320, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Marcel Naujoks & Kevin Aretz & Alexander Kerl & Andreas Walter, 2009. "Do German security analysts herd?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 3-29, March.
- Orazio Attanasio & Laura Blow & Robert Hamilton & Andrew Leicester, 2005.
"Booms and busts: consumption, house prices and expectations,"
IFS Working Papers
W05/24, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Orazio P. Attanasio & Laura Blow & Robert Hamilton & Andrew Leicester, 2009. "Booms and Busts: Consumption, House Prices and Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(301), pages 20-50, 02.
- Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992.
"A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October.
- Sushil Bikhchandani & David Hirshleifer & Ivo Welch, 2010. "A theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom and cultural change as informational Cascades," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1193, David K. Levine.
- Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005.
"Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals, and Misperceptions,"
NBER Working Papers
11643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
- Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing high house prices: bubbles, fundamentals, and misperceptions," Staff Reports 218, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Markus K. Brunnermeier & Christian Julliard, 2006.
"Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies,"
NBER Working Papers
12810, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David Laster & Paul Bennett & In Sun Geoum, 1999. "Rational Bias In Macroeconomic Forecasts," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 293-318, February.
- James Payne & George Waters, 2007. "Have Equity REITs Experienced Periodically Collapsing Bubbles?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 207-224, February.
- Ito, Takatoshi, 1990.
"Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 434-49, June.
- Takatoshi Ito, 1990. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data," NBER Working Papers 2679, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hilde C. Bjørnland & Dag Henning Jacobsen, 2009.
"The role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in small open economies,"
2009/06, Norges Bank.
- Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Jacobsen, Dag Henning, 2010. "The role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in small open economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 218-229, December.
- Goodhart, Charles & Hofmann, Boris, 2008.
"House Prices, Money, Credit and the Macroeconomy,"
Working Paper Series
0888, European Central Bank.
- Levin, Eric J. & Wright, Robert E., 1997. "The impact of speculation on house prices in the United Kingdom," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 567-585, October.
- Dan Bernhardt & Murillo Campbello & Edward Kutsoati, 2002.
Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University
0213, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.