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A Real Estate Price Index for Thin Markets

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  • Schwann, Gregory M
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    Abstract

    This article examines a time-series-based method for estimating real estate price indexes for markets that have few transactions. The proposed method is more parsimonious than the conventional repeat sale or hedonic methods. Also, it is potentially more accurate and less prone to outliers. It achieves this by linking current transactions to preceding transactions, thereby increasing the set of comparable transactions on which to base the index. My experiments confirm that the time-series price index fares much better in thin markets than a benchmark hedonic index. It remains close to the true index when there are few transactions and it does not have the volatility of the benchmark index. While the time-series-based index developed in this article does better than the benchmark hedonic index, one surprise result is that the hedonic index is itself quite robust in small samples. Copyright 1998 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Real Estate Finance & Economics.

    Volume (Year): 16 (1998)
    Issue (Month): 3 (May)
    Pages: 269-87

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    Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:16:y:1998:i:3:p:269-87

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    Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=102945

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    Cited by:
    1. Marc Francke, 2010. "Repeat Sales Index for Thin Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 24-52, July.
    2. Diewert, Erwin & Shimizu, Chihiro, 2013. "Residential Property Price Indexes for Tokyo," Economics working papers erwin_diewert-2013-16, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 11 Apr 2013.
    3. Constantinescu, Mihnea & Francke, Marc, 2013. "The historical development of the Swiss rental market – A new price index," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 135-145.
    4. Diewert, W. Erwin & Nishimura , Kiyohiko & Shimizu, Chihiro & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2014. "Residential Property Price Indexes for Japan: An Outline of the Japanese Official RPPI," Economics working papers erwin_diewert-2014-17, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 27 Mar 2014.
    5. Schulz, Rainer & Werwatz, Axel, 2001. "A state space model for Berlin house prices," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2001,58, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    6. Sheharyar Bokhari & David Geltner, 2012. "Estimating Real Estate Price Movements for High Frequency Tradable Indexes in a Scarce Data Environment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 522-543, August.

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