Small area estimation-based prediction methods to track poverty: validation and applications
AbstractTracking poverty is predicated on the availability of comparable consumption data and reliable price deflators. However, regular series of strictly comparable data are only rarely available. Price deflators are also often missing or disputed. In response, poverty prediction methods that track consumption correlates as opposed to consumption itself have been developed. These methods typically assume that the estimated relation between consumption and its predictors is stable over time -- an assumption that cannot usually be tested directly. This study analyzes the performance of poverty prediction models based on small area estimation techniques. Predicted poverty estimates are compared with directly observed levels in two country settings where data comparability over time is not a problem. Prediction models that employ either non-staple food or non-food expenditures or a full set of assets as predictors are found to yield poverty estimates that match observed poverty well. This offers some support to the use of such methods to approximate the evolution of poverty. Two further country examples illustrate how an application of the method employing models based on household assets can help to adjudicate between alternative price deflators.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal The Journal of Economic Inequality.
Volume (Year): 10 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
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Web page: http://springerlink.metapress.com/link.asp?id=111137
Consumption prediction; Price deflator; Poverty dynamics; Small area estimation; China; Kenya; Russia; Vietnam; D12; D63; I32;
Other versions of this item:
- Christiaensen, Luc & Lanjouw, Peter & Luoto, Jill & Stifel, David, 2011. "Small area estimation-based prediction methods to track poverty : validation and applications," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5683, The World Bank.
- D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
- D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
- I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
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