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The Role of Omitted Variables in Identifying a Long-run Equilibrium Relationship for the Italian Government Growth

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Author Info
Gabriella Legrenzi ()
Costas Milas

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Abstract

We discuss the role of omitted variables in the long run empirical modeling of the Italian government growth based on a Wagner's Law framework. We identify a non-spurious long-run relationship between general government expenditure and domestic product only when our Wagner's Law model is enhanced by a measure of bureaucratic power, as a supply-side variable, and by the ratio of local to state expenditure, as an institutional factor that captures the division of competencies between local and central government in allocating public expenditure. This result is independent from the Wagner's Law specification chosen. The persistence profile analysis shows a slow adjustment to equilibrium for the estimated government growth relationship following system-wide shocks, pointing to rigidities and complex functioning of the public sector. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2002

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/A:1016568003489
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal International Tax and Public Finance.

Volume (Year): 9 (2002)
Issue (Month): 4 (August)
Pages: 435-449
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Handle: RePEc:kap:itaxpf:v:9:y:2002:i:4:p:435-449

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Related research
Keywords: Wagner's Law; growth of governments; bureaucracy; persistence profile;

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Charles M. Tiebout, 1956. "A Pure Theory of Local Expenditures," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64, pages 416. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Payne, James E & Ewing, Bradley T, 1996. "International Evidence on Wagner's Hypothesis: A Cointegration Analysis," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 51(2), pages 258-74.
  3. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-77, Sept.-Oct. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Schwartz, Gerd & Ter-Minassian, Teresa, 2000. " The Distributional Effects of Public Expenditure," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 14(3), pages 337-58, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Peacock, Alan & Scott, Alex, 2000. " The Curious Attraction of Wagner's Law," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 102(1-2), pages 1-17, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1996. "Cointegration and speed of convergence to equilibrium," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 117-143. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Panos C. Afxentiou & Apostolos Serletis, 1996. "Government Expenditures In The European Union: Do They Converge Or Follow Wagner'S Law?," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 33-47, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Gandhi, Ved P, 1971. "Wagner's Law of Public Expenditure: Do Recent Cross-Section Studies Confirm it?," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 26(1), pages 44-56.
  9. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gabriella Deborah Legrenzi, 2009. "Asymmetric and Non-Linear Adjustments in Local Fiscal Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Gabriella Legrenzi, 2006. "The Permanent Effect of Domestic Income on the Growth of Governments," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2006/19, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University. [Downloadable!]
  3. Marcelo de Paiva Abreu & Marcelo Cunha Medeiros & Rogério L.F. Werneck, 2003. "Formação de preços de commodities: padrões de vinculação dos preços internos ao externos," Textos para discussão 474, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  4. Gabriella Legrenzi & Costas Milas, 2005. "Non-linear adjustments in fiscal policy," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2005/04, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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