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A Sequential Rationality Test of USDA Preliminary Price Estimates for Selected Program Crops: Rice, Soybeans, and Wheat

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  • Sung No

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  • Michael Salassi

    ()

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11294-009-9228-5
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    Article provided by Springer in its journal International Advances in Economic Research.

    Volume (Year): 15 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 4 (November)
    Pages: 470-482

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    Handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:15:y:2009:i:4:p:470-482

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    Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=112112

    Related research

    Keywords: A sequential rationality test; USDA price estimates; Time-series model; D40; Q11; C32; C53; C10; Q00;

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    1. Andrew M. McKenzie & Bingrong Jiang & Harjanto Djunaidi & Linwood A. Hoffman & Eric J. Wailes, 2002. "Unbiasedness and Market Efficiency Tests of the U.S. Rice Futures Market," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 24(2), pages 474-493.
    2. Patton, Andrew J. & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Testing Forecast Optimality Under Unknown Loss," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 1172-1184, December.
    3. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2002. "Usda Production Forecasts For Pork, Beef, And Broilers: An Evaluation," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 27(01), July.
    4. Stein, Jerome L, 1981. "Speculative Price: Economic Welfare and the Idiot of Chance," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(2), pages 223-32, May.
    5. Bailey, DeeVon & Brorsen, B. Wade, 1998. "Trends In The Accuracy Of Usda Production Forecasts For Beef And Pork," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(02), December.
    6. Elam, Emmett W. & Holder, Shelby H., 1985. "An Evaluation Of The Rice Outlook And Situation Price Forecasts," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(02), December.
    7. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
    8. William D. Nordhaus, 1985. "Forecasting Efficiency: Concepts and Applications," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 774, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    10. Kastens, Terry L. & Schroeder, Ted C. & Plain, Ronald L., 1998. "Evaluation Of Extension And Usda Price And Production Forecasts," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(01), July.
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