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Aging: Some Pleasant Fiscal Arithmetic

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  • David Hauner

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Abstract

Projections of age-related public expenditure growth have raised widespread concerns about fiscal sustainability. This paper examines how total expenditure would develop under four policy rules on public expenditure growth. Some simple arithmetic of expenditure, GDP, and population is reviewed and applied in simulations for 19 OECD countries over 2000–50. A general and a specific conclusion arise from the results. Generally, long-term expenditure projections could benefit from revisiting common assumptions on non-age-related expenditure growth. Specifically, realistic gradual adjustment in non-age-related expenditures could go a long way towards maintaining fiscal sustainability under age-related spending pressures. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2007

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11294-007-9093-z
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal International Advances in Economic Research.

Volume (Year): 13 (2007)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 347-364

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Handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:13:y:2007:i:3:p:347-364

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=112112

Related research

Keywords: Aging; Fiscal sustainability; OECD countries; Public expenditure; H50; J11;

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  1. Peter S. Heller & David Hauner, 2005. "Characterizing the Expenditure Uncertainties of Industrial Countries in the 21st Century," IMF Working Papers 05/91, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Martin Mühleisen & Kornélia Krajnyák & Stephan Danninger & David Hauner & Bennett Sutton, 2005. "How Do Canadian Budget Forecasts Compare with Those of Other Industrial Countries?," IMF Working Papers 05/66, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Tanzi,Vito & Schuknecht,Ludger, 2000. "Public Spending in the 20th Century," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521662918, April.
  4. Thai-Thanh Dang & Pablo Antolín & Howard Oxley, 2001. "Fiscal Implications of Ageing: Projections of Age-Related Spending," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 305, OECD Publishing.
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