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Making prospect theory fit for finance

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Author Info

  • Enrico Giorgi

    ()

  • Thorsten Hens

    ()

Abstract

This paper gives a survey over a common aspect of prospect theory that occurred to be of importance in a series of recent papers developed by Enrico De Giorgi, Thorsten Hens, Janos Mayer, Haim Levy, Thierry Post, Marc Oliver Rieger and Mei Wang. The common aspect of these papers is that the value function of the prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky (1979) and similarly that of Tversky and Kahneman (1992) has to be re-modelled if one wants to apply it to portfolio selection. Instead of the piecewise power value function, a piecewise negative exponential function should be used. This functional form is still compatible with laboratory experiments but it has the following advantages over and above Kahneman and Tversky`s piecewise power function: 1. The Bernoulli Paradox does not arise for lotteries with finite expected value. 2. No infinite leverage/robustness problem arises. 3. CAPM-equilibria with heterogeneous investors and prospect utility do exist. 4. It is able to simultaneously resolve the following asset pricing puzzles: the equity premium, the value and the size puzzle.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11408-006-0019-1
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Financial Markets and Portfolio Management.

Volume (Year): 20 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 339-360

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Handle: RePEc:kap:fmktpm:v:20:y:2006:i:3:p:339-360

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=119763

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Keywords: D 01; D 14; D 81; G 11;

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References

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  1. Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7656, David K. Levine.
  2. De Giorgi, Enrico, 2005. "Reward-risk portfolio selection and stochastic dominance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 895-926, April.
  3. Antoni Bosch-Domènech & Joaquim Silvestre, 2006. "Reflections on gains and losses: A 2 × 2 × 7 experiment," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 217-235, December.
  4. Berkelaar, A.B. & Kouwenberg, R.R.P., 2000. "Optimal portfolio choice under loss aversion," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2000-08/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  5. Nicholas Barberis & Wei Xiong, 2006. "What Drives the Disposition Effect? An Analysis of a Long-Standing Preference-Based Explanation," NBER Working Papers 12397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Shlomo Benartzi & Richard H. Thaler, 1993. "Myopic Loss Aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 4369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang & Tano Santos, 2001. "Prospect Theory And Asset Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(1), pages 1-53, February.
  8. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
  9. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  10. De Giorgi, Enrico & Hens, Thorsten & Post, Thierry, 2005. "Prospect Theory and the Size and Value Premium Puzzles," Discussion Papers 2005/20, Department of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics.
  11. Basu, S, 1977. "Investment Performance of Common Stocks in Relation to Their Price-Earnings Ratios: A Test of the Efficient Market Hypothesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(3), pages 663-82, June.
  12. Richard H. Thaler & Eric J. Johnson, 1990. "Gambling with the House Money and Trying to Break Even: The Effects of Prior Outcomes on Risky Choice," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(6), pages 643-660, June.
  13. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
  14. Samuelson, Paul A, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection by Dynamic Stochastic Programming," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 239-46, August.
  15. Weber, Martin & Camerer, Colin F., 1998. "The disposition effect in securities trading: an experimental analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 167-184, January.
  16. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-65, June.
  17. Terrance Odean, 1998. "Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1775-1798, October.
  18. Banz, Rolf W., 1981. "The relationship between return and market value of common stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 3-18, March.
  19. Shefrin, Hersh & Statman, Meir, 1985. " The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 777-90, July.
  20. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. " Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
  21. Kyle, Albert S. & Ou-Yang, Hui & Xiong, Wei, 2006. "Prospect theory and liquidation decisions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 129(1), pages 273-288, July.
  22. Hens, Thorsten & Vlcek, Martin, 2005. "Does Prospect Theory Explain the Disposition Effect?," Discussion Papers 2005/18, Department of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics.
  23. Enrico Giorgi & Thorsten Hens & János Mayer, 2007. "Computational aspects of prospect theory with asset pricing applications," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 29(3), pages 267-281, May.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Azevedo, Eduardo M. & Gottlieb, Daniel, 2012. "Risk-neutral firms can extract unbounded profits from consumers with prospect theory preferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(3), pages 1291-1299.
  2. Trond Døskeland, 2007. "Strategic asset allocation for a country: the Norwegian case," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 167-201, June.
  3. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:4:y:2007:i:26:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Marie-Hélène Broihanne & Maxime Merli & Patrick Roger, 2008. "A Behavioural Approach To Financial Puzzles," Working Papers of LaRGE Research Center 2008-01, Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie (LaRGE), Université de Strasbourg (France).
  5. Bernard, Carole & Ghossoub, Mario, 2009. "Static Portfolio Choice under Cumulative Prospect Theory," MPRA Paper 15446, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Fortin, Ines & Hlouskova, Jaroslava, 2011. "Optimal asset allocation under linear loss aversion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2974-2990, November.
  7. Broll, Udo & Egozcue, Martín & Wong, Wing-Keung & Zitikis, Ričardas, 2010. "Prospect theory and hedging risks," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 05/10, Dresden University of Technology, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
  8. David Peel & David Law, 2007. "Betting on odds on Favorites as an Optimal Choice in Cumulative Prospect Theory," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 4(26), pages 1-10.
  9. Liu, Shuangzhe & Ma, Tiefeng & Polasek, Wolfgang, 2012. "Spatial System Estimators for Panel Models: A Sensitivity and Simulation Study," Economics Series 294, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  10. Peel, D.A. & Zhang, Jie, 2009. "The expo-power value function as a candidate for the work-horse specification in parametric versions of cumulative prospect theory," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 326-329, December.
  11. André Gygax & Anna Griffiths, 2007. "Do venture capitalists imitate portfolio size?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 69-94, March.
  12. Marie Pfiffelmann, 2011. "Solving the St. Petersburg Paradox in cumulative prospect theory: the right amount of probability weighting," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 71(3), pages 325-341, September.
  13. Fortin, Ines & Hlouskova, Jaroslava, 2012. "Optimal Asset Allocation under Quadratic Loss Aversion," Economics Series 291, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  14. Peel, D.A. & Zhang, Jie, 2012. "On the potential for observational equivalence in experiments on risky choice when a power value function is assumed," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 8-10.
  15. Carole Bernard & Jit Seng Chen & Steven Vanduffel, 2013. "Rationalizing Investors Choice," Papers 1302.4679, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2014.
  16. Peel, D.A., 2010. "On lottery sales, jackpot sizes and irrationality: A cautionary note," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 161-163, December.

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