On the Uncertainty About the Total Economic Impact of Climate Change
AbstractThis paper uses a vote-counting procedure to estimate the probability density function of the total economic impact as a parabolic function of global warming. There is a wide range of uncertainty about the impact of climate change up to 3°C, and the information becomes progressively more diffuse beyond that. Warming greater than 3°C most likely has net negative impacts, and warming greater than 7°C may lead to a total welfare loss. The expected value of the social cost of carbon is about $29/tC in 2015 and rises at roughly 2% per year. Copyright The Author(s) 2012
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists in its journal Environmental and Resource Economics.
Volume (Year): 53 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (September)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100263
Climate change; Economic impact; Meta-analysis; Social cost of carbon; Q54;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rehdanz, Katrin & Maddison, David, 2005.
"Climate and happiness,"
Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 111-125, January.
- Katrin Rehdanz & David J. Maddison, 2003. "Climate and Happiness," Working Papers, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University FNU-20, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2003.
- Tol, Richard S. J., 2007.
"The Social Cost of Carbon: Trends, Outliers and Catastrophes,"
Economics Discussion Papers
2007-44, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Tol, Richard S. J., 2008. "The Social Cost of Carbon: Trends, Outliers and Catastrophes," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 2(25), pages 1-22.
- Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "The Social Cost Of Carbon: Trends, Outliers And Catastrophes," Working Papers, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University FNU-144, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Aug 2007.
- Tol, Richard S. J., 2005. "The marginal damage costs of carbon dioxide emissions: an assessment of the uncertainties," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(16), pages 2064-2074, November.
- J.K. Horowitz, 2002. "Preferences in the Future," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(3), pages 241-258, March.
- Maddison, David, 2003. "The amenity value of the climate: the household production function approach," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 155-175, May.
- Richard S. J. Tol, 2009. "The Economic Effects of Climate Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 29-51, Spring.
- Richard S. J. Tol, 2010.
"The Economic Impact of Climate Change,"
Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik,
Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11(s1), pages 13-37, 05.
- Tol, Richard S. J., 2008. "The Economic Impact of Climate Change," Papers, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) WP255, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
- Plambeck, Erica L & Hope, Chris, 1996. "PAGE95 : An updated valuation of the impacts of global warming," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(9), pages 783-793, September.
- Martin L. Weitzman, 2009.
"On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 91(1), pages 1-19, February.
- Weitzman, Martin L., 2009. "On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change," Scholarly Articles 3693423, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Martin L. Weitzman, 2007. "A Review of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(3), pages 703-724, September.
- Simon Dietz & Anca N. Matei, 2013. "Is there space for agreement on climate change? A non-parametric approach to policy evaluation," Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Papers, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment 136, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
- Richard S.J. Tol, 2012.
"Targets for Global Climate Policy: An Overview,"
Working Paper Series
3712, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
- Tol, Richard S.J., 2013. "Targets for global climate policy: An overview," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 911-928.
- Greasley, David & Hanley, Nick & McLaughlin, Eoin & Oxley, Les, 2014.
"The Emperor Has New Clothes: Empirical Tests of Mainstream Theories of Economic Growth,"
Stirling Economics Discussion Papers, University of Stirling, Division of Economics
2014-08, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
- David & Nick Hanley & Eoin McLaughlin & Les Oxley, 2014. "The Emperor Has New Clothes: Empirical Tests of Mainstream Theories of Economic Growth," Working Papers 201401, University of St. Andrews, Department of Geography and Sustainable Development.
- Nicholas Stern, 2013. "The Structure of Economic Modeling of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change: Grafting Gross Underestimation of Risk onto Already Narrow Science Models," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 838-59, September.
- Yacov Tsur & Cees Withagen, 2013. "Preparing for catastrophic climate change," Journal of Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 225-239, November.
- John C. V. Pezzey & Paul J. Burke, 2014. "Towards a More Inclusive and Precautionary Indicator of Global Sustainability," CCEP Working Papers 1410, Centre for Climate Economics & Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.