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Employment and growth in an aging society: a simulation study for Austria

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  • Josef Baumgartner
  • Helmut Hofer
  • Serguei Kaniovski
  • Ulrich Schuh
  • Thomas Url

    ()

Abstract

In this study we use a long run macroeconomic model for Austria to simulate the effects of aging on employment, output growth, and the solvency of the social security system. By disaggregating the population into six age cohorts and modelling sex specific participation rates for each cohort, we are able to account for the future demographic trends. Apart from a baseline scenario, we perform three alternative simulations that highlight the effects of aging from different perspectives. These include (1) purely demographic developments, (2) increasing labour market imperfections, and (3) higher economic growth due to a productivity shock.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10663-006-9003-2
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirica.

Volume (Year): 33 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 19-33

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Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:33:y:2006:i:1:p:19-33

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100261

Related research

Keywords: Economic growth; Aging; Austria; C6; E2; O4;

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  1. Lawrence F. Katz & Olivier Blanchard, 1999. "Wage Dynamics: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 69-74, May.
  2. Manfred Koch & Christian Thimann, 1999. "From Generosity to Sustainability: The Austrian Pension System and Options for its Reform," Empirica, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 21-38, March.
  3. Alois Guger & Christine Mayrhuber, 2001. "Labour Force Participation and Old-Age Pensions," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 74(2), pages 111-119, February.
  4. Josef Baumgartner & Helmut Hofer & Serguei Kaniovski & Ulrich Schuh & Thomas Url, 2004. "A Long-run Macroeconomic Model of the Austrian Economy (A-LMM). Model Documentation and Simulations," WIFO Working Papers 224, WIFO.
  5. Willi Leibfritz & Deborah Roseveare & Douglas Fore & Eckhard Wurzel, 1995. "Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: How Do They Affect Saving?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 156, OECD Publishing.
  6. Fumio Hayashi, 1981. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average a : A Neoclassical Interpretation," Discussion Papers 457, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  7. Christian Thimann & Manfred Koch, 1997. "From Generosity to Sustainability," IMF Working Papers 97/10, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Barry P. Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2003. "The Empirics of Growth: An Update," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 113-206.
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