MERCOSUR enlargement: predicting the effects on trade in primary agricultural commodities
AbstractThis article estimates the effects of a hypothetical enlargement of the Mercado Común del Sur (MERCOSUR), depicted by granting MERCOSUR associate member countries a full membership status, on trade in primary agricultural commodities. The empirical investigation is implemented through the multiplicative form of the gravity model. The estimated gravity parameters are used to carry out scenarios that predict the effects of MERCOSUR enlargement on trade in primary agricultural commodities. The predictions reveal that MERCOSUR enlargement would generate significant increases in exports from the full members to the associate members. The predictions also show relatively smaller increases in exports from the associate members to the full members (in value terms), but some important increases in trade among the associate members. Trade diversion effects of MERCOSUR enlargement, which influence trade between full members and from non-member countries to full and associate members, are found to be limited. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Economic Change and Restructuring.
Volume (Year): 46 (2013)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=113294
Agricultural commodities; Gravity equation; Latin America; MERCOSUR; Regional trade agreements; F13; F15; Q17; R19;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
- F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
- Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
- R19 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Other
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1989. "The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 143-53, February.
- Krinsky, Itzhak & Robb, A Leslie, 1986. "On Approximating the Statistical Properties of Elasticities," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(4), pages 715-19, November.
- Amjadi, Azita & Winters, L. Alan, 1997.
"Transport costs and"natural"integration in Mercosur,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
1742, The World Bank.
- Winters, L. Alan & Amjadi, Azita, 1999. "Transport Costs and “Natural” Integration in Mercosur," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 14, pages 497-521.
- David Lambert & Shahera McKoy, 2009. "Trade Creation and Diversion Effects of Preferential Trade Associations on Agricultural and Food Trade," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 17-39.
- J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006.
"The Log of Gravity,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
- Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann, 2003. "Augmented Gravity Model: An Empirical Application to Mercosur-European Union Trade Flows," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 291-316, November.
- Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-81, August.
- James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003.
"Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
- James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2000. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 485, Boston College Department of Economics.
- James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Won Chang & Winters, L. Alan, 1999.
"How regional blocs affect excluded countries - the price effects of MERCOSUR,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
2157, The World Bank.
- Won Chang & L. Alan Winters, 2002. "How Regional Blocs Affect Excluded Countries: The Price Effects of MERCOSUR," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 889-904, September.
- Chang, Won & Winters, L. Alan, 1999. "How Regional Blocs Affect Excluded Countries: The Price Effects of MERCOSUR," CEPR Discussion Papers 2179, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
- Štefan Bojnec & Imre Fertő, 2012. "Does EU Enlargement Increase Agro-Food Export Duration?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(5), pages 609-631, 05.
- Huiwen Lai & Susan Chun Zhu, 2004. "The determinants of bilateral trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(2), pages 459-483, May.
- Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D., 2004. "Economic and Geographical Distance: Explaining Mercosur Sectoral Exports to the EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 291-314, 07.
- Pedro E. Moncarz & Marcel Vaillant, . "MERCOSUR’s role on the regional patterns of imports of its country members: a dynamic panel data approach," Discussion Papers 07/27, University of Nottingham, GEP.
- Lin Sun & Michael R. Reed, 2010. "Impacts of Free Trade Agreements on Agricultural Trade Creation and Trade Diversion," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1351-1363.
- Jane Korinek & Mark Melatos, 2009. "Trade Impacts of Selected Regional Trade Agreements in Agriculture," OECD Trade Policy Papers 87, OECD Publishing.
- Helena Marques, 2011. "Asymmetries in heterogeneous integrated areas: Evidence from sectoral trade between old and new EU members," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 5-29.
- Matthieu Bussière & Jarko Fidrmuc & Bernd Schnatz, 2008. "EU Enlargement and Trade Integration: Lessons from a Gravity Model," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 562-576, 08.
- Pascal L. Ghazalian & Bruno Larue & Jean‐Philippe Gervais, 2011. "Assessing the implications of regional preferential market access for meat commodities," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 292-310, 06.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.