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Transition, the Evolution of Stock Market Efficiency and Entry into EU: The Case of Romania

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  • Barry Harrison

    ()

  • David Paton

Abstract

In this paper we demonstrate that the measurement of stock market efficiency is an important activity in establishing whether eastern European countries satisfy the Copenhagen Criteria for EU membership. Specifically, we argue that developing an efficient stock market should be an important policy focus for countries with aspirations to join the EU as it helps to demonstrate the existence of a functioning market economy. We illustrate this issue by examining the evolution of stock market efficiency in the Bucharest Stock Exchange from mid-1997 to September 2002. We use a GARCH model on daily price data and model the disturbances using the Student-t distribution to allow for ‘fat-tails’. We find strong evidence of inefficiency in the Bucharest Stock Exchange in that the lagged stock price index is a significant predictor of the current price index. This result is robust to the inclusion of variables controlling for calendar effects of the sort that have been observed in more developed stock markets. The level of inefficiency appears to diminish over time and we find evidence consistent with stock market efficiency in Romania after January 2000. Copyright Springer 2005

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10644-005-5060-y
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Economic Change and Restructuring.

Volume (Year): 37 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 (09)
Pages: 203-223

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Handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:37:y:2004:i:3:p:203-223

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=113294

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Keywords: stock market efficiency; transition; G14; P34;

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References

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  1. Ross Levine, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June.
  2. Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, . "Financial Dependence and Growth," CRSP working papers 344, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  3. Keith Jefferis & Graham Smith, 2005. "The Changing Efficiency Of African Stock Markets," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 73(1), pages 54-67, 03.
  4. repec:fth:eeccou:151 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Nauro F. Campos & Jan Hanousek & Randall K. Filer, 1999. "Do Stock Markets Promote Economic Growth?," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp151, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
  6. Mendelson, Morris & Peake, Junius W., 1993. "Equity markets in economies in transition," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 913-929, September.
  7. Morley, Bruce & Pentecost, Eric J., 1998. "Asset pricing and foreign exchange risk: econometric evidence for the G-7," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 317-329, April.
  8. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Harrison, Barry & Moore, Winston, 2009. "Stock Market Como Vement In The European Union And Transition Countries," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 13(3), pages 124-151.
  2. Lim, Kian-Ping & Brooks, Robert D. & Kim, Jae H., 2008. "Financial crisis and stock market efficiency: Empirical evidence from Asian countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 571-591, June.
  3. Barry Harrison & Winston Moore, 2009. "Spillover effects from London and Frankfurt to Central and Eastern European stock markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(18), pages 1509-1521.
  4. Kovačić, Zlatko, 2007. "Forecasting volatility: Evidence from the Macedonian stock exchange," MPRA Paper 5319, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Lavinia Minodora Takacs, 2012. "The Value Relevance Of Earnings In A Transition Economy: Evidence From Romanian Stock Market," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 1(14), pages 8.
  6. Mubariz Hasanov & Tolga Omay, 2007. "Are the Transition Stock Markets Efficient? Evidence from Non-Linear Unit Root Tests," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 7(2), pages 1-12.
  7. Abdmoulah, Walid, 2010. "Testing the evolving efficiency of Arab stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 25-34, January.
  8. Drags Mînjina & Petre Brezeanu, 2013. "Testing the Efficient Markets Hypothesis on the Romanian Capital Market," Finante - provocarile viitorului (Finance - Challenges of the Future), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(15), pages 151-158, December.
  9. Ben Rejeb, Aymen & Boughrara, Adel, 2013. "Financial liberalization and stock markets efficiency: New evidence from emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 186-208.
  10. Filip, Andrei & Raffournier, Bernard, 2010. "The value relevance of earnings in a transition economy: The case of Romania," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 77-103, March.
  11. Omay, Nazli C. & Karadagli, Ece C., 2010. "Testing Weak Form Market Efficiency for Emerging Economies: A Nonlinear Approach," MPRA Paper 27312, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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