Exchange Rate Volatility in High Inflation Economies: An Econometric Study of Poland and Brazil
AbstractThis paper analyses exchange rate series for Poland and Brazil. The Polish series, related to the period soon after the first liberalizing measures, presents a high volatility which is not accounted for by some selected 'fundamentals.' The Brazilian series, though also keeping evidence of excessive volatility, is cointegrated with fundamentals similar to those of the Polish case. This raises the issue of a learning process taking place during persistent inflations. Unsuccessful one-shot stabilization plans can reinforce this process, leaving a lasting imprint in the excessive volatility pattern. The message seems clear, though maybe not easy to implement: agents take some time to learn to live in non-stable environments; to avoid this by one-shot measures--if unsuccessful--can have a very high cost and preempt future corrections. Copyright 1994 by Kluwer Academic Publishers
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Economics of Planning.
Volume (Year): 27 (1994)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=113294
Other versions of this item:
- Renato Flôres & Marcos de B. Monteiro & Ariane Szafarz, 1994. "Exchange rate volatility in high-inflation economies: an econometric study of Poland and Brazil," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/693, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
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- Charemza, Wojciech W., 1996. "Detecting stochastic bubbles on an East European foreign exchange market: An estimation/simulation approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 35-53, March.
- Renato Flôres & Ariane Szafarz, 1997.
"Testing the Information Structure of Eastern European Markets: The Warsaw Stock Exchange,"
ULB Institutional Repository
2013/707, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Renato Flôres & Ariane Szafarz, 1997. "Testing the Information Structure of Eastern European Markets: The Warsaw Stock Exchange," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 91-105, May.
- Flores, Renato G, Jr & Szafarz, Ariane, 1997. " Testing the Information Structure of Eastern European Markets: The Warsaw Stock Exchange," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 30(2-3), pages 91-105.
- Renato G. Flores & JrAriane Szafarz, . "Testing the Information Structure of eastern European Markets: The Warsaw Stock Exchange," Ace Project Memoranda 96/7, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
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