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Is There a J-Curve for the Economic Transition from Socialism to Capitalism?

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Author Info

  • Brada, Josef C
  • King, Arthur E

Abstract

It is often assumed that the process of transition from socialism to capitalism involves a dislocation and disorganization of the economy in the early stages of the transition. Thus, it is argued, economic performance will at first worsen and then gradually improve as the new system takes hold. This paper argues that, based on evidence from Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Poland, there is no evidence for such a J-curve phenomenon. Using a simple macroeconomic model, the authors show that, in these three reforming countries, the decline in production can be explained by exogenous shocks to the balance of trade, to investments and to autonomous consumption. This finding also suggests that macroeconomic policy in these countries may be too restrictive to permit a recovery of employment and production. Copyright 1992 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Economics of Planning.

Volume (Year): 25 (1992)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 37-53

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Handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:25:y:1992:i:1:p:37-53

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=113294

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Cited by:
  1. Bouev Maxim & Matveenko Vladimir & Vostroknutova Ekaterina, 1998. "Transformational Decline and Preconditions of Growth in Russia," EERC Working Paper Series 98-03e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
  2. Wolfgang Quaisser & John Hall, 2002. "Toward Agenda 2007 : Preparing the EU for Eastern Enlargement," Working Papers 240, Institut f├╝r Ost- und S├╝dosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and South-East European Studies).
  3. Girard, Dorota Zdanowska, 2005. "The cost of epidemiological transition: A study of a decrease in pertussis vaccination coverage," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 287-303, November.
  4. Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "From socialism to capitalism: 1989-2007," MPRA Paper 14914, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Raiser, Martin, 1992. "Soft budget constraints: An institutional interpretation of stylised facts in economic transformation in Central Eastern Europe," Kiel Working Papers 549, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  6. Raiser, Martin, 1994. "Lessons for whom, from whom? The transition from socialism in China and Central Eastern Europe compared," Kiel Working Papers 630, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  7. Roberts, Barbara M. & Zolkiewski, Zbigniew, 1996. "Modelling income distribution in countries in transition: A computable general equilibrium analysis for Poland," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 67-90, January.
  8. Funke, Norbert, 1993. "Timing and sequencing of reforms: Competing views," Kiel Working Papers 552, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  9. Horst, H.A.F. ter, 1996. "Socialism, Capitalism, and Transition with Special Reference to Poland," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-73689, Tilburg University.
  10. Raiser, Martin & Nunnenkamp, Peter, 1993. "Output decline and recovery in Central Europe: the role of incentives before, during and after privatisation," Kiel Working Papers 601, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  11. Michael Landesmann & Hermine Vidovic, 2006. "Employment Developments in Central and Eastern Europe," wiiw Research Reports 332, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.

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