What are the Trade Spill-Overs from Fiscal Shocks in Europe? An Empirical Analysis**
Abstract
We use a Vector Auto Regression (VAR) analysis to explore the (trade spill-over) effects of fiscal policy shocks in Europe. To enhance comparability with the existing literature, we first analyse the effects of these shocks at the national level. Here, we employ identification based on Choleski decomposition and a structural VAR, both of which lead to the same results. Then, we turn to study the cross-border spill-overs of fiscal shocks via the trade channel. Fiscal expansions in Germany, France and Italy lead to significant increases in imports from a number of European countries. In order to mimic the case of monetary union, we also shut off the effects via the short-term interest rate and the nominal exchange rate and find a slight strengthening on average of the cross-country spill-overs from a fiscal expansion. These results suggest that it may be worthwhile to further investigate the possibility of enhanced fiscal coordination. Copyright Springer 2005Download Info
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Bibliographic Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal De Economist.
Volume (Year): 153 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 (06)
Pages: 167-197
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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100260
Related research
Keywords: fiscal shocks; fiscal policy; monetary policy; spill-overs; impulse responses; E62; E63; F42;Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
- F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
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Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Alistair Dieppe & Thomas Warmedinger, 2007. "Modelling intra- and extra-area trade substitution and exchange rate pass-through in the euro area," Working Paper Series 760, European Central Bank.
- Giuliodori, Massimo & Beetsma, Roel, 2008.
"On the relationship between fiscal plans in the European Union: An empirical analysis based on real-time data,"
Journal of Comparative Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 221-242, June.
- Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo, 2007. "On the Relationship between Fiscal Plans in the European Union: An Empirical Analysis Based on Real-Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 6088, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Guido Ascari & Neil Rankin, 2004.
"Perpetual youth and endogenous labour supply: a problem and a possible solution,"
Working Paper Series
346, European Central Bank.
- Ascari, Guido & Rankin, Neil, 2007. "Perpetual youth and endogenous labor supply: A problem and a possible solution," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 708-723, December.
- de Castro, Francisco & Hernández de Cos, Pablo, 2008. "The economic effects of fiscal policy: The case of Spain," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1005-1028, September.
- Lejour, Arjan & Lukkezen, Jasper & Veenendaal, Paul, 2010. "Sustainability of Government Debt in the EU," MPRA Paper 30139, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Jun 2010.
- Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori & Franc Klaassen, 2005.
"Trade Spillovers of Fiscal Policy in the European Union: A Panel Analysis,"
EUI-RSCAS Working Papers
31, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
- Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori & Franc Klaassen, 2006. "Trade spill-overs of fiscal policy in the European Union: a panel analysis," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 21(48), pages 639-687, October.
- Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori & Franc Klaassen, 2005. "Trade Spillovers of Fiscal Policy in the European Union: A Panel Analysis," DNB Working Papers 052, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & Klaassen, Franc, 2005. "Trade Spillovers of Fiscal Policy in the European Union: A Panel Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 5222, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Tomasz Michalak & Jacob Engwerda & Joseph Plasmans, 2009. "Strategic Interactions between Fiscal and Monetary Authorities in a Multi-Country New-Keynesian Model of a Monetary Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 2534, CESifo Group Munich.
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