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What are the Trade Spill-Overs from Fiscal Shocks in Europe? An Empirical Analysis**

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  • Massimo Giuliodori

    ()

  • Roel Beetsma

    ()

Abstract

We use a Vector Auto Regression (VAR) analysis to explore the (trade spill-over) effects of fiscal policy shocks in Europe. To enhance comparability with the existing literature, we first analyse the effects of these shocks at the national level. Here, we employ identification based on Choleski decomposition and a structural VAR, both of which lead to the same results. Then, we turn to study the cross-border spill-overs of fiscal shocks via the trade channel. Fiscal expansions in Germany, France and Italy lead to significant increases in imports from a number of European countries. In order to mimic the case of monetary union, we also shut off the effects via the short-term interest rate and the nominal exchange rate and find a slight strengthening on average of the cross-country spill-overs from a fiscal expansion. These results suggest that it may be worthwhile to further investigate the possibility of enhanced fiscal coordination. Copyright Springer 2005

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10645-005-2934-3
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal De Economist.

Volume (Year): 153 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 (06)
Pages: 167-197

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Handle: RePEc:kap:decono:v:153:y:2005:i:2:p:167-197

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100260

Related research

Keywords: fiscal shocks; fiscal policy; monetary policy; spill-overs; impulse responses; E62; E63; F42;

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References

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  1. Mountford, A.W. & Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S., 2002. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," Discussion Paper 2002-31, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  2. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2006. "Some stylized facts on non-systematic fiscal policy in the Euro area," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 461-479, September.
  3. Canova, Fabio & Pappa, Evi, 2003. "Price Dispersions in Monetary Unions: The Role of Fiscal Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 3746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Benoit Mojon & Gert Peersman, 2001. "A VAR description of the effects of monetary policy in the individual countries of the Euro area," Working Paper Series 092, European Central Bank.
  5. Carlo A. Favero, . "How do European monetary and fiscal authorities behave?," Working Papers 214, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  6. Frank Smets & Gert Peersman, 2001. "The monetary transmission mechanism in the Euro area: more evidence from VAR analysis (MTN conference paper)," Working Paper Series 091, European Central Bank.
  7. Stefano Neri, 2001. "Assessing the effects of monetary and fiscal policy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 425, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  8. Christopher A. Sims, 1998. "Role of interest rate policy in the generation and propagation of business cycles: what has changed since the '30s?," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jun, pages 121-175.
  9. Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
  10. Warwick J. McKibbin, 2002. "Macroeconomic Policy in Japan," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 1(2), pages 133-165.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Alistair Dieppe & Thomas Warmedinger, 2007. "Modelling intra- and extra-area trade substitution and exchange rate pass-through in the euro area," Working Paper Series 760, European Central Bank.
  2. Giuliodori, Massimo & Beetsma, Roel, 2008. "On the relationship between fiscal plans in the European Union: An empirical analysis based on real-time data," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 221-242, June.
  3. Guido Ascari & Neil Rankin, 2004. "Perpetual youth and endogenous labour supply: a problem and a possible solution," Working Paper Series 346, European Central Bank.
  4. de Castro, Francisco & Hernández de Cos, Pablo, 2008. "The economic effects of fiscal policy: The case of Spain," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1005-1028, September.
  5. Lejour, Arjan & Lukkezen, Jasper & Veenendaal, Paul, 2010. "Sustainability of Government Debt in the EU," MPRA Paper 30139, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Jun 2010.
  6. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori & Franc Klaassen, 2005. "Trade Spillovers of Fiscal Policy in the European Union: A Panel Analysis," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 31, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
  7. Tomasz Michalak & Jacob Engwerda & Joseph Plasmans, 2009. "Strategic Interactions between Fiscal and Monetary Authorities in a Multi-Country New-Keynesian Model of a Monetary Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 2534, CESifo Group Munich.

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