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Can Endogenous Participation Explain Price Volatility? Evidence from an Agent-Based Cobweb Model

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  • Domenico Colucci

    ()

  • Vincenzo Valori

Abstract

The cobweb model literature has mostly overlooked the issue of firms' financial viability and the related question of market entry and exit. This paper tries to address these problems building an agent-based computational cobweb model with borrowing constraints and endogenous participation of heterogeneous firms. The flow of firms' profit affects their financial wealth and borrowing is possible up to a limit. Past such threshold the firm goes bankrupt and exits. At the same time at each period a pool of potential entrants have a constant positive probability of becoming a startup in the market, provided the incumbent firms have realized non-negative mean profits in recent periods. Bounded dynamics and endogenous volatility are shown to follow without resorting to nonlinearities. Indeed, with respect to the literature assuming nonlinearities and heterogeneous firms switching between different predictors (e.g. Brock and Hommes, 1997) our structure is simpler, given that the model's main message remains valid even with linear demand and supply and firms having heterogeneous-parameters adaptive expectations. Additional insights are provided by the numerical simulations of the model. The saliency of the borrowing constraint has a large impact on profits and ultimately on firms' survival chances, beside an effect on average prices and therefore on consumer surplus. Further, the model confirms that behavioral heterogeneity, even in the mild form assumed here, matters, and is in fact crucial to ensure bounded price dynamics. Finally, the model generates reasonable (given the stylized facts accepted by the empirical literature) patterns of firms survival times.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10614-011-9281-z
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Society for Computational Economics in its journal Computational Economics.

Volume (Year): 38 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (October)
Pages: 425-437

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Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:38:y:2011:i:3:p:425-437

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100248
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Related research

Keywords: Heterogeneous agents; Expectations; Price instability; Market entry and exit;

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References

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  1. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  2. P Commendatore & M Currie, 2005. "The Cobweb, Borrowing and Financial Crises," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0503, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  3. Domenico Colucci & Vincenzo Valori, 2005. "Ways of learning in a simple economic setting: a comparison," Working Papers - Mathematical Economics 2005-01, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
  4. Colucci, Domenico & Valori, Vincenzo, 2011. "Adaptive expectations and cobweb phenomena: Does heterogeneity matter?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1307-1321, August.
  5. Michael Kopel & Herbert Dawid, 1998. "On economic applications of the genetic algorithm: a model of the cobweb type," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 297-315.
  6. Branch, William A., 2002. "Local convergence properties of a cobweb model with rationally heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 63-85, November.
  7. Geroski, P. A., 1995. "What do we know about entry?," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 421-440, December.
  8. Huang, Weihong, 1995. "Caution implies profit," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 257-277, July.
  9. Goeree, Jacob K. & Hommes, Cars H., 2000. "Heterogeneous beliefs and the non-linear cobweb model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 761-798, June.
  10. Milan MareŇ°, 2000. "Ulrich Schwalbe: The Core of Economies with Asymmetric Information Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems 474," Bulletin of the Czech Econometric Society, The Czech Econometric Society, vol. 7(11).
  11. Busenitz, Lowell W. & Barney, Jay B., 1997. "Differences between entrepreneurs and managers in large organizations: Biases and heuristics in strategic decision-making," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 9-30, January.
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