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Asymmetric Adjustment and Bias in Estimation of an Equilibrium Relationship from a Cointegrating Regression

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Author Info
Sean Holly
Paul Turner
Melvyn Weeks

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Abstract

This paper uses Monte Carlo methods to investigate the effects of asymmetricadjustment on estimates of the parameters of the equilibrium relationshipbetween a set of variables. We demonstrate that simple least squares estimatesand the implicit estimates from a symmetric error correction model both leadto biases in the constant term. This bias increases with the size of theasymmetry and shows no tendency to decline with the sample size. We also showthat if the biased estimates of the equilibrium relationship are then used todevide the sample into different regimes to test for assymmetric adjustment,then the resulting test has low power. The power of tests for asymmetry canbe increased significantly by using simultaneous estimation of the parametersof the equilibrium relationship and the asymmetric adjustment process. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2003

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/A:1023954024420
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Computational Economics.

Volume (Year): 21 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 195-202
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Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:21:y:2003:i:3:p:195-202

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100248

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Related research
Keywords: asymmetric adjustment; equilibrium relationship; cointegration; Monte Carlo simulation;

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Altu[gbreve], Sumru & Ashley, Richard A. & Patterson, Douglas M., 1999. "Are Technology Shocks Nonlinear?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(04), pages 506-533, December. [Downloadable!]
  2. Escribano, Alvaro & Pfann, Gerard A., 1998. "Non-linear error correction, asymmetric adjustment and cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 197-216, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Palm, Franz C. & Pfann, Gerard A., 1998. "Sources of asymmetry in production factor dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 361-392, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Arden, R. & Holly, S. & Turner, P., 1997. "Asymmetric Adjustment Costs, Asymmetric Pricing and Employment: Evidence from the UK," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9717, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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  5. Cook, Steven & Holly, Sean & Turner, Paul, 1999. "The power of tests for non-linearity: the case of Granger-Lee asymmetry," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 155-159, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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