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Volatility Relationship between Crude Oil and Petroleum Products

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  • Thomas Lee

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  • John Zyren
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    Abstract

    This paper utilizes calculated historical volatility and GARCH models to compare the historical price volatility behavior of crude oil, motor gasoline and heating oil in U.S. markets since 1990. We incorporate a shift variable in the GARCH/TARCH models to capture the response of price volatility to a change in OPEC’s pricing behavior. This study has three major conclusions. First, there was an increase in volatility as a result of a structural shift to higher crude oil prices after April 1999. Second, volatility shocks from current news are not important since GARCH effects dominate ARCH effects in the variance equation. Third, persistence of volatility in all commodity markets is quite transitory, with half-lives normally being a few weeks. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2007

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11293-006-9051-9
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by International Atlantic Economic Society in its journal Atlantic Economic Journal.

    Volume (Year): 35 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 1 (March)
    Pages: 97-112

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    Handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:35:y:2007:i:1:p:97-112

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    Related research

    Keywords: oil markets; price volatility; petroleum product; GARCH; asymmetric response; Q40;

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    References

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    1. Sadorsky, Perry, 1999. "Oil price shocks and stock market activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 449-469, October.
    2. Lester Hadsell, Achla Marathe and Hany A. Shawky, 2004. "Estimating the Volatility of Wholesale Electricity Spot Prices in the US," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 23-40.
    3. Asger Lunde & Peter R. Hansen, 2005. "A forecast comparison of volatility models: does anything beat a GARCH(1,1)?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 873-889.
    4. Severin Borenstein & A. Colin Cameron, 1992. "Do Gasoline Prices Respond Asymmetrically to Crude Oil Price Changes?," NBER Working Papers 4138, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    6. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    7. C. Morana, 2002. "IGARCH effects: an interpretation," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(11), pages 745-748.
    8. Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Threshold heteroskedastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 931-955, September.
    9. Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
    10. Kiseok Lee & Shawn Ni & Ronald A. Ratti, 1995. "Oil Shocks and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Price Variability," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 39-56.
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    Cited by:
    1. Lee, Yen-Hsien & Hu, Hsu-Ning & Chiou, Jer-Shiou, 2010. "Jump dynamics with structural breaks for crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 343-350, March.
    2. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Roengchai Tansuchat, 2009. "Modelling Conditional Correlations for Risk Diversification in Crude Oil Markets," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-640, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    3. Batten, Jonathan A. & Ciner, Cetin & Lucey, Brian M., 2010. "The macroeconomic determinants of volatility in precious metals markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 65-71, June.

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