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Option-Based Prediction of Commercial Mortgage Defaults

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Author Info
Leon G. Shilton () (Graduate School of Business Administration Fordham University Lincoln Center New York, New York 10023)
John Teall (Department of Finance Pace University New York, New York 10038)
Abstract

Underwriters set loan-to-value ratios and loan contract interest rates of uninsured commercial mortgages to anticipate the likelihood of subsequent default. The results of the use of a modified Black-Scholes option model suggest that loan-to-value ratios are bound from below by borrowers' desires to maximize project leverage in a limited liability setting and constrained from above by lenders' requirement to originate loans with institutional-grade (Baa) contract interest rates. Given the prevailing risk-free rate and the investment-grade rate, this model at the time of mortgage origination predicts the possibility of default for a new commercial mortgage. The model is empirically verified with ACLI data for 1968-89.

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File URL: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol09n02/v09p219.pdf
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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal Journal of Real Estate Research.

Volume (Year): 9 (1994)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 219-236
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:9:n:2:1994:p:219-236

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Postal: American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Kaplan, Robert S & Urwitz, Gabriel, 1979. "Statistical Models of Bond Ratings: A Methodological Inquiry," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 52(2), pages 231-61, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. James L. Kuhle & Carl H. Walther & Charles H. Wurtzebach, 1986. "The Financial Performance of Real Estate Investment Trusts," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 1(1), pages 67-75. [Downloadable!]
  3. James R. Webb & Jack H. Rubens, 1986. "Portfolio Considerations in the Valuation of Real Estate," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 14(3), pages 465-495. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Leon G. Shilton & James R. Webb, 1989. "Commercial Loan Underwriting and Option Valuation," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 4(1), pages 1-12. [Downloadable!]
  5. Frydman, Halina & Altman, Edward I & Kao, Duen-Li, 1985. " Introducing Recursive Partitioning for Financial Classification: The Case of Financial Distress," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 269-91, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Kerry D. Vandell, 1992. "Predicting Commercial Mortgage Foreclosure Experience," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(1), pages 55-88. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bradford Case, 2003. "Loss characteristics of commercial real estate loan portfolios," Basel II White Paper 1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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