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The Cascade GIS Diffusion Model for Measuring Housing Absorption by Small Area with a Case Study of St. Lucie County, Florida

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Abstract

The geographer's spatial diffusion theory is combined with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology to provide a new framework for predicting residential single-family development patterns. We refer to the model as a multiple-state 'Cascade' GIS diffusion model. Parameter calibration is done using two-stage least squares. The model predicts new housing built and purchased by small submarket. Our example submarket is at the census tract level; a smaller submarket could have been chosen. The contribution to housing forecasting literature is a structural model that captures the spatial diffusion process at various geographical scales. Model estimation and forecasts are facilitated using GIS technology via a high resolution and high precision database using county property tax bills.

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  • Grant Ian Thrall & Charles F. Sidman & Susan Elshaw Thrall & Timothy J. Fik, 1993. "The Cascade GIS Diffusion Model for Measuring Housing Absorption by Small Area with a Case Study of St. Lucie County, Florida," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(3), pages 401-420.
    • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:8:n:3:1993:p:401-420
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    1. Beach, Charles M & MacKinnon, James G, 1978. "A Maximum Likelihood Procedure for Regression with Autocorrelated Errors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 51-58, January.
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    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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