Probabilistic Valuation Models and Income Tax Asymmetries with an Application to the Analysis of Passive Loss Restrictions
AbstractThis paper develops a modified version of the standard real estate discounted cash flow valuation model that allows the analyst to specify probability distributions, rather than point estimates, on general inflation and rental income for each year of the expected holding period. Explicit modeling of rental income uncertainty is especially critical in the presence of restrictions that cause the tax treatment of income-producing property to be asymmetric. This is demonstrated by an analysis of the restrictions on passive activity losses (PAL) that were introduced with the passage of the Tax Reform Act of 1986. The probability model results indicate that rational investors can pay significantly more for an income property as a result of the elimination of PAL restrictions than would be indicated by the results produced by a standard discounted cash flow "point estimate" model. This is due to the reduction in the skewness of the after-tax returns generated by the property when PAL restrictions are eliminated, and the decline in the required equity discount rate that results from the decreased variance of the after-tax returns.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal Journal of Real Estate Research.
Volume (Year): 8 (1993)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Contact details of provider:
Postal: American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323
Web page: http://www.aresnet.org/
Postal: Diane Quarles American Real Estate Society Manager of Member Services Clemson University Box 341323 Clemson, SC 29634-1323
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- James L. Kuhle & Carl H. Walther & Charles H. Wurtzebach, 1986. "The Financial Performance of Real Estate Investment Trusts," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 1(1), pages 67-75.
- Crocker H. Liu & David J. Hartzell & Terry V. Grissom & Wylie Greig, 1990. "The Composition of the Market Portfolio and Real Estate Investment Performance," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75.
- K. C. Chan & Patric H. Hendershott & Anthony B. Sanders, 1990.
"Risk and Return on Real Estate: Evidence from Equity REITs,"
Real Estate Economics,
American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(4), pages 431-452.
- K.C. Chan & Patric H. Hendershott & Anthony B. Sanders, 1991. "Risk and Return on Real Estate: Evidence from Equity REITs," NBER Working Papers 3311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- W. B. Brueggeman & A. H. Chen & T. G. Thihodeau, 1984. "Real Estate Investment Funds: Performance and Portfolio Considerations," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 12(3), pages 333-354.
- Paul H. Goebel & Kee S. Kim, 1989. "Performance Evaluation of Finite-Life Real Estate Investment Trusts," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 4(2), pages 57-70.
- Joseph Gyourko & Donald B. Keim, . "What Does the Stock Market Tell Us About Real Estate Returns? (Revised: 11-92)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 18-91, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Ross, Stephen A & Zisler, Randall C, 1991. "Risk and Return in Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 175-90, June.
- Sheridan Titman & Arthur Warga, 1986. "Risk and the Performance of Real Estate Investment Trusts: A Multiple Index Approach," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 14(3), pages 414-431.
- Geltner, David Michael, 1991. "Smoothing in Appraisal-Based Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 327-45, September.
- John D. Martin & Douglas O. Cook, 1991. "A Comparison of the Recent Performance of Publicly Traded Real Property Portfolios and Common Stock," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 19(2), pages 184-212.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (JRER Graduate Assistant/Webmaster).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.