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Projections in the Industrial Property Market using a Simultaneous Equation System

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A three-equation simultaneous system is used to model the industrial property market in Great Britain. Strong relationships are found between new industrial building supply and both real rents and construction costs, and between rents, industrial floorspace availability and the gross domestic product. The performance of ex post simulations of new building supply, rents and floorspace availability are satisfactory with the exception of rent simulations post 1993. The central forecast of the model indicates a quiet market until 2001 (lower level of new supply, constant levels of real rents and increasing availability of industrial space) but a more active market in 2002 and 2003. This study suggests that simultaneous equation models can prove useful alternative tools in analysing the industrial property market and generating forecasts both at the aggregate and more localised level of analysis.

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File URL: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol19n02/vo19n165_188.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal Journal of Real Estate Research.

Volume (Year): 19 (2000)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 165-188

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Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:18:n:3:1999:p:165-188

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Postal: American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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Web page: http://www.aresnet.org/

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Postal: Diane Quarles American Real Estate Society Manager of Member Services Clemson University Box 341323 Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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Web: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/about/get.htm

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  1. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
  2. Richard J. Buttimer, Jr. & Ronald C. Rutherford & Ron Witten, 1997. "Industrial Warehouse Rent Determinants in the Dallas/Fort Worth Area," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 13(1), pages 47-56.
  3. Brent W. Ambrose, 1990. "An Analysis of the Factors Affecting Light Industrial Property Valuation," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 5(3), pages 355-370.
  4. Wheaton, William C & Torto, Raymond G & Evans, Peter, 1997. "The Cyclic Behavior of the Greater London Office Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 77-92, July.
  5. Nakamura, Alice & Nakamura, Masao, 1981. "On the Relationships among Several Specification Error Tests Presented by Durbin, Wu, and Hausman," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1583-88, November.
  6. Bob Thompson & Sotiris Tsolacos, 1999. "Rent Adjustments and Forecasts in the Industrial Market," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 17(2), pages 151-168.
  7. Hoag, James W, 1980. " Towards Indices of Real Estate Value and Return," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 569-80, May.
  8. John L. Kling & Thomas E. McCue, 1991. "Stylized Facts About Industrial Property Construction," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 6(3), pages 293-304.
  9. John Benjamin & G. Donald Jud & Daniel T. Winkler, 1998. "A Simultaneous Model and Empirical Test of the Demand and Supply of Retail Space," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 16(1), pages 1-14.
  10. Breusch, T S, 1978. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(31), pages 334-55, December.
  11. William L. Attebery & Ronald C. Rutherford & Mark E. Eakin, 1993. "Industrial Real Estate Prices and Market Efficiency," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(3), pages 377-386.
  12. William C. Wheaton & Raymond G. Torto, 1990. "An Investment Model of the Demand and Supply For Industrial Real Estate," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(4), pages 530-547.
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