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Risk Assessment Steeplechase: Hurdles to Becoming a Target Market

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    Abstract

    Framed in a quadrant model, the data sources that analysts use to predict the performance of core property types for the major metropolitan areas in the United States are reviewed. The hypothesis is that forecasters rely on information from the economic base, the property inventory and financial performance quadrants to generate forecasts. For each core property type, analysts are rather homogeneous in grouping metropolitan areas from best to worst. However, the property type determines what sets of economic, social, inventory and market information are used. The only consistent forecast factor used across all property types appears to be economic growth.

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    File URL: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol17n02/v17p127.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal Journal of Real Estate Research.

    Volume (Year): 17 (1999)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 127-150

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    Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:17:n:2:1999:p:127-150

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    Postal: American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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    Web page: http://www.aresnet.org/

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    Postal: Diane Quarles American Real Estate Society Manager of Member Services Clemson University Box 341323 Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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    Web: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/about/get.htm

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    1. Joseph Gyourko & Donald B. Keim, . "What Does the Stock Market Tell Us About Real Estate Returns? (Revision of 18-91) (Reprint 030)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 11-92, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    2. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Joseph Gyourko & Donald B. Keim, 1992. "What Does the Stock Market Tell Us About Real Estate Returns?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(3), pages 457-485.
    4. William N. Goetzmann & Susan M. Wachter, 1998. "Clustering Methods for Real Estate Portfolios," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm59, Yale School of Management.
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