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The Magnitude of Random Appraisal Error in Commercial Real Estate Valuation

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Abstract

Analysis of more than seven hundred pairs of simultaneous independent appraisals of institutional-grade commercial properties shows that the standard deviation of the random component of appraisal error is approximately 2%. Random appraisal error appears constant across both time and the institutional-grade investment universe, except during infrequent periods of real estate market gridlock. Most appraisal error is deterministic in nature, even though it usually appears random in routine cross-sectional analysis. Such appraisal error can be constrained and reduced by investment management control systems.

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File URL: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol17n01/v17p033.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal Journal of Real Estate Research.

Volume (Year): 17 (1999)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 33-54

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Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:17:n:1:1999:p:33-54

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Postal: American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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Web page: http://www.aresnet.org/

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Postal: Diane Quarles American Real Estate Society Manager of Member Services Clemson University Box 341323 Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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Web: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/about/get.htm

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  1. Julian Diaz, III, 1997. "An Investigation into the Impact of Previous Expert Value Estimates on Appraisal Judgment," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 13(1), pages 57-66.
  2. Julian Diaz & Marvin L. Wolverton, 1998. "A Longitudinal Examination of the Appraisal Smoothing Hypothesis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 26(2), pages 349-358.
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Cited by:
  1. Simon Stevenson, 2000. "International Real Estate Diversification: Empirical Tests using Hedged Indices," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 19(1), pages 105-131.
  2. Michael Young, 2008. "Revisiting Non-normal Real Estate Return Distributions by Property Type in the U.S," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 233-248, February.
  3. Robert Edelstein & Daniel Quan, 2006. "How Does Appraisal Smoothing Bias Real Estate Returns Measurement?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 41-60, February.
  4. Steven Devaney & Stephen Lee & Michael Young, 2004. "Serial Persistence in Individual Real Estate Returns in the UK," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2004-13, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  5. Shuang Zhu & R. Pace, 2012. "Distressed Properties: Valuation Bias and Accuracy," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 153-166, January.
  6. Philippe Cyrenne & Robert Fenton & Joseph Warbanski, 2006. "Historic Buildings and Rehabilitation Expenditures: A Panel Data Approach," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 28(4), pages 349-380.

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