Evaluating the Interest-Rate Risk of Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Loans
AbstractThis paper evaluates the interest-rate risk inherent in an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) with sporadic rate adjustments and possibly binding periodic and life-of-loan rate change constraints. Simulation analysis forecasts ARM cash flows, determines the probability that constraints will hold, and partitions the loan into fixed and variable components. Simulation parameters are then altered to measure the impact of changes in contract terms and market conditions on the interest-rate risk of a typical ARM loan. Interest-rate sensitivity is found to be significantly less than that of fixed-rate loans and remarkably insensitive to changes in loan margins or initial loan rates after the first few years of an ARM's life. Therefore, it is not surprising that lenders have used these features to lure borrowers to ARMs. Periodic rate change limits and volatility in the underlying index are the only factors that influence the interest-rate risk of an existing ARM in a substantive way.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal Journal of Real Estate Research.
Volume (Year): 13 (1997)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Contact details of provider:
Postal: American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323
Web page: http://www.aresnet.org/
Postal: Diane Quarles American Real Estate Society Manager of Member Services Clemson University Box 341323 Clemson, SC 29634-1323
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services
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