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Self-Selection and Tests for Bias and Risk in Mortgage Lending: Can You Price the Mortgage If You Don't Know the Process?

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Abstract

There is increasing interest in understanding the determinants of mortgage rejection by lenders and default by borrowers. Although many researchers have proposed simple single-equation models of rejection and default, we argue that far more complex econometric specifications are needed. This paper focuses attention on problems of sample selection in the process creating a sample of applicants for conventional mortgages. We illustrate that corrections for sample selection bias may have a substantial effect on estimation results and hence should not be ignored in studies of mortgage rejection or default.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert F. Phillips & Anthony M.J. Yezer, 1996. "Self-Selection and Tests for Bias and Risk in Mortgage Lending: Can You Price the Mortgage If You Don't Know the Process?," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 11(1), pages 87-102.
    • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:11:n:1:1996:p:87-102
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    1. Meng, Chun-Lo & Schmidt, Peter, 1985. "On the Cost of Partial Observability in the Bivariate Probit Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(1), pages 71-85, February.
    2. Robert F. Phillips & Robert P. Trost & Anthony M.J. Yezer, 1994. "Bias in estimates of discrimination and default in mortgage lending: the effects of simultaneity and self-selection," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, pages 197-222.
    3. Berkovec, James A & Canner, Glenn B. & Gabriel, Stuart A. & Hannan, Timothy H., 1994. "Race, Redlining, and Residential Mortgage Loan Performance," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 263-294, November.
    4. Munnell, Alicia H. & Geoffrey M. B. Tootell & Lynn E. Browne & James McEneaney, 1996. "Mortgage Lending in Boston: Interpreting HMDA Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 25-53, March.
    5. Fishe, Raymond P. H. & Trost, R. P. & Lurie, Philip M., 1981. "Labor force earnings and college choice of young women: An examination of selectivity bias and comparative advantage," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 169-191, April.
    6. Hunter, William C & Walker, Mary Beth, 1996. "The Cultural Affinity Hypothesis and Mortgage Lending Decisions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 57-70, July.
    7. Ferguson, Michael F & Peters, Stephen R, 1995. "What Constitutes Evidence of Discrimination in Lending?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 739-748, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ozhegov, Evgeniy, 2017. "Estimating the demand function for differentiated product with endogenous characteristics and heterogeneity of preferences: The case of mortgage loans," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 45, pages 93-115.
    2. Donald R. Epley & Kartono Liano, 1999. "The Residential Mortgage Supply Function of Commercial Banks," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 36(11), pages 1959-1971, October.
    3. Dawkins, Mark C., 2002. "Simultaneity bias in mortgage lending: A test of simultaneous equations models on bank-specific data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1593-1613, August.
    4. Michael LaCour-Little, 2007. "Economic Factors Affecting Home Mortgage Disclosure Act Reporting," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 29(4), pages 479-510.
    5. Lozinskaia Agata & Ozhegov Evgeniy, 2016. "Key Determinants of Demand, Credit Underwriting, and Performance on Government-Insured Mortgage Loans in Russia," EERC Working Paper Series 16/03e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    6. Lozinskaya, Agatha & Ozhegov, Evgeniy, 2014. "Estimation of mortgage lending credit risk," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 35(3), pages 3-17.
    7. Yan Zhang, 2013. "Fair Lending Analysis of Mortgage Pricing: Does Underwriting Matter?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 131-151, January.
    8. Evgeniy M. Ozhegov, 2014. "The Underwriting, Choice And Performance Of Government-Insured Mortgages In Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 31/FE/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    9. Agatha M. Poroshina, 2014. "Credit Risk Modeling Of Residential Mortgage Lending In Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 30/FE/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.

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    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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