Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan

Contents:

Author Info

  • Mohammad Afzal

    ()
    (Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Islamabad- Pakistan)

  • Ijaz Hussain

    (Department of Economics, FC University, Lahore)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    The relationship between economic growth, exports and imports in Pakistan from1990Q1 to 2008Q1 has been examined. Economic growth and exports are not cointegrated suggesting the absence of long-run relationship. Causality in Granger’s sense is absent between economic growth and exports as well as between imports and economic growth. Impulse response functions show that income, exports, and imports have negative impact on each other. Variance decomposition analysis demonstrates that imports appear to have a stronger impact on exports relative to income. The effect of exports on economic growth is modest. This paper finds no support for export-led growth hypothesis in Pakistan. Strong development of agriculture on modern scientific lines is suggested.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.jqe.co.in/journals/JQE_v8_n1_2010_p9.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by The Indian Econometric Society in its journal Journal of Quantitative Economics.

    Volume (Year): 8 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 130-147

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:jqe:jqenew:v:8:y:2010:i:1:p:130-147

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.jqe.co.in/societyhome.html
    More information through EDIRC

    Order Information:
    Postal: Managing Editor, Journal of Quantitative Economics, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Gen. A.K. Vaidya Marg, Goregaon (E), Mumbai 400 065 , INDIA
    Web: http://www.jqe.co.in/

    Related research

    Keywords: Pakistan; exports; economic growth; cointegration; Granger causality; impulse response functions;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-77, Sept.-Oct.
    2. Alam, M Shahid, 1991. "Trade Orientation and Macroeconomic Performance in LDCs: An Empirical Study," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(4), pages 839-48, July.
    3. Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73.
    4. Fosu, Augustin Kwasi, 1990. "Exports and economic growth: The African case," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 831-835, June.
    5. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    6. Michaely, Michael, 1977. "Exports and growth : An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 49-53, February.
    7. Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
    8. Tyler, William G., 1981. "Growth and export expansion in developing countries : Some empirical evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 121-130, August.
    9. David A. Dickey & Dennis W. Jansen & Daniel L. Thornton, 1991. "A primer on cointegration with an application to money and income," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 58-78.
    10. Moschos, Demetrios, 1989. "Export expansion, growth and the level of economic development: An empirical analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 93-102, January.
    11. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
    12. Heller, Peter S. & Porter, Richard C., 1978. "Exports and growth : An empirical re-investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 191-193, June.
    13. Chow, Peter C. Y., 1987. "Causality between export growth and industrial development : Empirial evidence from the NICs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 55-63, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Muhammad AFZAl, 2012. "Do Structural Transformation And Trade Liberalisation Cause Economic Growth In Pakistan?," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 12(1).

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jqe:jqenew:v:8:y:2010:i:1:p:130-147. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (D. M. Nachane) or ().

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.