The role of age‐structured education data for economic growth forecasts
AbstractThis paper utilizes for the first time age-structured human capital data for economic growth forecasting. We concentrate on pooled cross‐country data of 65 countries over six 5‐year periods (1970–2000) and consider specifications chosen by model selection criteria, Bayesian model averaging methodologies based on in‐sample and out‐of‐sample goodness of fit and on adaptive regression by mixing. The results indicate that forecast averaging and exploiting the demographic dimension of education data improve economic growth forecasts systematically. In particular, the results are very promising for improving economic growth predictions in developing countries. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.
Volume (Year): 30 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
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Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966
economic growth ; education data ; forecasting ; adaptive regression ; Bayesian model averaging ;
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- Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Samir K.C. & Petra Sauer, 2013. "Age-Specific Education Inequality, Education Mobility and Income Growth," WWWforEurope Working Papers series 6, WWWforEurope.
- Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Wolfgang Lutz & Warren Sanderson, 2014. "Is the Demographic Dividend an Education Dividend?," Demography, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 299-315, February.
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