Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Predicting the signs of forecast errors

Contents:

Author Info

  • Nazaria Solferino

    (University of Rome 'Tor Vergata', Rome, Italy)

  • Robert Waldmann

    (University of Rome 'Tor Vergata', Rome, Italy)

Abstract

The signs of forecast errors can be predicted using the difference between individuals' forecasts and the average of earlier forecasts of the same variable. It is possible to improve forecasts without worsening any. It is difficult to reconcile this result with the rational expectations hypothesis because the average of earlier forecasts is in the information set of the forecasters. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.1139
File Function: Link to full text; subscription required
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 29 (2010)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 476-485

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:29:y:2010:i:5:p:476-485

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. repec:bla:restud:v:72:y:2005:i:4:p:1107-1125 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Biases In Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality Or Asymmetric Loss?," CAMA Working Papers 2005-14, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  3. Steven P. Peterson, 2001. "Rational Bias In Yield Curve Forecasts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(3), pages 457-464, August.
  4. Ehrbeck, Tilman & Waldmann, Robert, 1996. "Why Are Professional Forecasters Biased? Agency versus Behavioral Explanations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(1), pages 21-40, February.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. I am storing pdf's at google sites so you can see my research
    by Robert in Robert's Stochastic Thoughts on 2009-03-16 11:09:00
  2. Photographing Phantom Invisible Bond Vigilantes
    by Robert in angry bear on 2009-11-22 13:02:00

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:29:y:2010:i:5:p:476-485

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.