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Expectations, use and judgmental adjustment of external financial and economic forecasts: an empirical investigation


Author Info

  • Sinan Gönül

    (Department of Business Administration, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Ankara, Turkey)

  • Dilek Önkal

    (Faculty of Business Administration, Bilkent University, Ankara, Turkey)

  • Paul Goodwin

    (School of Management, University of Bath, UK)

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    A survey of 124 users of externally produced financial and economic forecasts in Turkey investigated their expectations and perceptions of forecast quality and their reasons for judgmentally adjusting forecasts. Expectations and quality perceptions mainly related to the timeliness of forecasts, the provision of a clear justifiable rationale and accuracy. Cost was less important. Forecasts were frequently adjusted when they lacked a justifiable explanation, when the user felt they could integrate their knowledge into the forecast, or where the user perceived a need to take responsibility for the forecast. Forecasts were less frequently adjusted when they came from a well-known source and were based on sound explanations and assumptions. The presence of feedback on accuracy reduced the influence of these factors. The seniority and experience of users had little effect on their attitudes or propensity to make adjustments. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): 28 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 19-37

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    Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:28:y:2009:i:1:p:19-37

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    Cited by:
    1. Rianne Legerstee & Philip Hans Franses, 2014. "Do Experts’ SKU Forecasts Improve after Feedback?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 69-79, 01.
    2. Goodwin, Paul & Sinan Gönül, M. & Önkal, Dilek, 2013. "Antecedents and effects of trust in forecasting advice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 354-366.
    3. Önkal, Dilek & Lawrence, Michael & Zeynep SayIm, K., 2011. "Influence of differentiated roles on group forecasting accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 50-68, January.
    4. Mathias Drehmann, 2013. "Evaluating early warning indicators of banking crises: Satisfying policy requirements," BIS Working Papers 421, Bank for International Settlements.


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