Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Expectations, use and judgmental adjustment of external financial and economic forecasts: an empirical investigation

Contents:

Author Info

  • Sinan Gönül

    (Department of Business Administration, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Ankara, Turkey)

  • Dilek Önkal

    (Faculty of Business Administration, Bilkent University, Ankara, Turkey)

  • Paul Goodwin

    (School of Management, University of Bath, UK)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    A survey of 124 users of externally produced financial and economic forecasts in Turkey investigated their expectations and perceptions of forecast quality and their reasons for judgmentally adjusting forecasts. Expectations and quality perceptions mainly related to the timeliness of forecasts, the provision of a clear justifiable rationale and accuracy. Cost was less important. Forecasts were frequently adjusted when they lacked a justifiable explanation, when the user felt they could integrate their knowledge into the forecast, or where the user perceived a need to take responsibility for the forecast. Forecasts were less frequently adjusted when they came from a well-known source and were based on sound explanations and assumptions. The presence of feedback on accuracy reduced the influence of these factors. The seniority and experience of users had little effect on their attitudes or propensity to make adjustments. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.1082
    File Function: Link to full text; subscription required
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): 28 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 19-37

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:28:y:2009:i:1:p:19-37

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966

    Related research

    Keywords:

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Rianne Legerstee & Philip Hans Franses, 2014. "Do Experts’ SKU Forecasts Improve after Feedback?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 69-79, 01.
    2. Goodwin, Paul & Sinan Gönül, M. & Önkal, Dilek, 2013. "Antecedents and effects of trust in forecasting advice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 354-366.
    3. Önkal, Dilek & Lawrence, Michael & Zeynep SayIm, K., 2011. "Influence of differentiated roles on group forecasting accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 50-68, January.
    4. Mathias Drehmann, 2013. "Evaluating early warning indicators of banking crises: Satisfying policy requirements," BIS Working Papers 421, Bank for International Settlements.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:28:y:2009:i:1:p:19-37. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.