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Identifying emerging generic technologies at the national level: the UK experience

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  • Michael Keenan

    (PREST, University of Manchester, UK)

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    Abstract

    A main reason for the popularity of national technology foresight exercises over the last decade has been their promise of allowing emerging generic technology areas to be identified and prioritized for resource-allocation purposes. Yet descriptions of the conduct of such exercises tend to be superficial, providing few clues to those wanting to undertake similar exercises. Taking the UK Technology Foresight Programme as an example, this paper sets out to describe the processes used to obtain a list of prioritized generic 'themes'. We show that several difficult choices have to be made, often requiring an assessment of opposing and synergistic tendencies. In the case of the UK Programme, a number of decisions seemed to be taken without adequate regard to some of the consequences. This resulted in the identification of generic themes that were, for the most part, subsequently ignored. This paper sets out to explain how this state of affairs came about, and points to possible lessons for those intending to embark upon similar exercises. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.849
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): 22 (2003)
    Issue (Month): 2-3 ()
    Pages: 129-160

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    Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:22:y:2003:i:2-3:p:129-160

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    Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966

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    Cited by:
    1. Konnola, Totti & Unruh, Gregory C. & Carrillo-Hermosilla, Javier, 2006. "Prospective voluntary agreements for escaping techno-institutional lock-in," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 239-252, May.
    2. repec:jso:coejbm:v:1:y:2013:i:1:p:28-49 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Fiedler, Marina & Welpe, Isabell M., 2010. "Antecedents of cooperative commercialisation strategies of nanotechnology firms," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 400-410, April.
    4. Maine, Elicia & Garnsey, Elizabeth, 2006. "Commercializing generic technology: The case of advanced materials ventures," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 375-393, April.
    5. Totti Könnölä & Gregory C. Unruh & Javier Carrillo- Hermosilla, 2005. "IE WP 23/04 Prospective Voluntary Agreements to Escape Carbon Lock-in," Others 0509005, EconWPA.
    6. Chih-Jou Chen & Chia-Chin Chang & Shiu-Wan Hung, 2011. "Influences of Technological Attributes and Environmental Factors on Technology Commercialization," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 104(4), pages 525-535, December.
    7. Shin, Juneseuk & Park, Yongtae, 2007. "Building the national ICT frontier: The case of Korea," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 249-277, June.

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