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Cross-Correlations and Predictability of Stock Returns

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Author Info
Olson, Dennis
Mossman, C

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Abstract

Studies have shown that small stock returns can be partially predicted by the past returns of large stocks (cross-correlations), while a larger body of literature has shown that macroeconomic variables can predict future stock returns. This paper assesses the marginal contribution of cross-correlations after controlling for predictability inherent in lagged macroeconomic variables. Macroeconomic forecasting models generate trading rule profits of up to 0.431% per month, while the inclusion of cross-correlations increases returns to 0.516% per month. Such results suggest that cross-correlations may serve as a proxy for omitted macroeconomic variables in studies of stock market predictability. Macroeconomic variables are more important than cross-correlations in forecasting small stock returns and encompassing tests suggest that the small marginal contribution of cross-correlations is not statistically significant. Copyright © 2001 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 20 (2001)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 145-60
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Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:20:y:2001:i:2:p:145-60

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Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966

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