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Testing in Unobserved Components Models

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Author Info
Harvey, Andrew

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Abstract

This article reviews recent work on testing for the presence of non-stationary unobserved components and presents it in a unified way. Tests against random walk components and seasonal components are given and it is shown how the procedures may be extended to multivariate models and models with structural breaks. Many of the test statistics have an asymptotic distribution belonging to the class of generalized Cramervon Mises distributions. A test for the number of common trends, or equivalently, co-integrating vectors, is also described. Copyright © 2001 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 20 (2001)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 1-19
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Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:20:y:2001:i:1:p:1-19

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Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966

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  1. Tommaso PROIETTI, 2002. "Some Reflections on Trend-Cycle Decompositions with Correlated Components," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/23, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Frits Bijleveld & Jacques Commandeur & Phillip Gould & Siem Jan Koopman, 2005. "Model-based Measurement of Latent Risk in Time Series with Applications," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-118/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Giancarlo Bruno & Marco Malgarini, 2002. "An Indicator of Economic Sentiment for the Italian Economy," ISAE Working Papers 28, ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses - (Rome, ITALY). [Downloadable!]
  4. Tommaso PROIETTI & Alberto MUSSO & Thomas WESTERMANN, 2002. "Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap for the Euro Area: a Model-Based Production Function Approach," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/09, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Fabio Nieto & Eliana González, 2005. "A Note onTesting for Unit Roots in the Unobservable Trend Component of a Structural Model," Revista Colombiana de Estadística, REVISTA COLOMBIANA DE ESTADISTICA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Fabio Busetti, 2006. "Tests of seasonal integration and cointegration in multivariate unobserved component models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 419-438. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Guro Børnes Ringlund, Knut Einar Rosendahl and Terje Skjerpen, 2004. "Does oilrig activity react to oil price changes? An empirical investigation," Discussion Papers 372, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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