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Einkommenswachstum, steigende Gesundheitsausgaben und Finanzierung

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  • Hans Adam

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    (FH Osnabrueck, Fakultaet WiSo)

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    Abstract

    In 2005, total health spending in Germany amounted to € 239,4 billion or € 2900 per capita. Given the aging of the population in the next decades and the progress in medical technology there are some doubts about the affordability of health spending growth. One important criterion which has been proposed is that increasing health care spending should not lead to an absolute reduction of real per capita non-health care consumption. Calcualtions for the period 2005-2075 show that non-health consumption will not fall if per capita health care spending growth exceeds per capita gross domestic product growth by 1 percentage point. Health care spending as a share of the gross domestic product will rise from 10.4 percent in 2005 to 21 percent in 2075. An increase in the ratio of health care spending to the gross domestic product must be expected to change the funding of the German health care system. The public provision of health care will decline while the share of income devoted to private health spending (additional insurance, out-of-pocket-payments) will increase.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics in its journal Journal of Economics and Statistics.

    Volume (Year): 227 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 5+6 (December)
    Pages: 563-577

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    Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:227:y:2007:i:5-6:p:565-577

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    Related research

    Keywords: Health spending; gross domestic product per capita; affordability; substainability; non-health consumption;

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    1. Peter Zweifel, 2006. "Auftrag und Grenzen der Sozialen Krankenversicherung," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7(s1), pages 5-26, 05.
    2. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 2005. "The value of life and the rise in health spending," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Fetzer, Stefan & Moog, Stefan & Raffelhüschen, Bernd, 2003. "Die Nachhaltigkeit der gesetzlichen Kranken- und Pflegeversicherung: Diagnose und Therapie," Discussion Papers 106, Institut für Finanzwissenschaft, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg.
    4. Friedrich Breyer & Volker Ulrich, 2000. "Gesundheitsausgaben, Alter und medizinischer Fortschritt: Eine Regressionsanalyse," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 220(1), pages 1-17.
    5. Kühn, Hagen, 2001. "Finanzierbarkeit der gesetzlichen Krankenversicherung und das Instrument der Budgetierung," Discussion Papers, Research Group Public Health P 01-204, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).
    6. Follette, Glenn & Sheiner, Louise, 2005. "The Sustainability of Health Spending Growth," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 58(3), pages 391-408, September.
    7. Joseph P. Newhouse, 1992. "Medical Care Costs: How Much Welfare Loss?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(3), pages 3-21, Summer.
    8. Oecd, 2006. "Projecting OECD Health and Long-Term Care Expenditures: What Are the Main Drivers?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 477, OECD Publishing.
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