Is Germany's GDP Trend-Stationary? A Measurement-With Theory Approach
AbstractThe time series properties of German GDP have been re-examined in recent research. Extending the sample to include GDP data from 1950 onwards, some researchers argued in favor of a trend-stationary rather than difference stationary representation of real log GDP. I show that this conclusion is based on an atheoretic trend model underlying the unit root tests. A simple linear trend model fails to take the post World-War II catch-up process properly into account. I use the Solow growth model to discriminate between transitional catch-up dynamics and long-run equilibrium growth. With the proper transformation of GDP data, I am able to use standard unit root tests and find that both ADF and KPSS tests suggest a difference stationary model. This evidence is supported by non-standard unit root tests which allow for polynomial trend representations.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics in its journal Journal of Economics and Statistics.
Volume (Year): 225 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
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Solow growth model; transistional dynamics; unit root tests;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- O41 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
- O52 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
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