A Simulation-Based Model for Final Price Prediction in Online Auctions
AbstractOnline auctions, a profitable, exciting, and dynamic part of e-commerce, have enjoyed increasing public interest. However, there is still a paucity of literature on final price prediction for online auctions. Although Markov process models provide a mathematical approach to predicting online auction prices, estimating parameters of a Markov process model in practice is a challenging task. In this paper we propose a simulation-based model as an alternative approach to predicting the final price in online auctions. The simulation results show that the proposed model can predict the final price more accurately than a Markov process model. Additionally, the consistent lower predictions of the Markov process model suggest a direction for future research into improving performance in both models.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by College of Business, Feng Chia University, Taiwan in its journal Journal of Economics and Management.
Volume (Year): 3 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Markov process; simulation; e-commerce; auction; final price prediction;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
- D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing - - - Auctions
- D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- McAfee, R Preston & McMillan, John, 1987. "Auctions and Bidding," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 25(2), pages 699-738, June.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Yi-Ju Su).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.