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Effects of ignorance and information on judgments and decisions

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Author Info

  • Peter Ayton
  • Dilek Onkal
  • Lisa McReynolds
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    Abstract

    We compared Turkish and English students' soccer forecasting for English soccer matches. Although the Turkish students knew very little about English soccer, they selected teams on the basis of familiarity with the team (or its identified city); their prediction success was surprisingly similar to knowledgeable English students---consistent with Goldstein and Gigerenzer's (1999; 2002) characterization of the recognition heuristic. The Turkish students made forecasts for some of the matches with additional information---the half-time scores. In this and a further study, where British students predicting matches for foreign teams could choose whether or not to use half-time information, we found that predictions that could be made by recognition alone were influenced by the half-time information. We consider the implications of these findings in the context of Goldstein and Gigerenzer's (2002, p. 82) suggestion that ``... no other information can reverse the choice determined by recognition'' and a recent more qualified statement (Gigerenzer & Goldstein, 2011) indicating that two processes, recognition and evaluation guide the adaptive selection of the recognition heuristic.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Society for Judgment and Decision Making in its journal Judgment and Decision Making.

    Volume (Year): 6 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 5 (July)
    Pages: 381-391

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    Handle: RePEc:jdm:journl:v:6:y:2011:i:5:p:381-391

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    Related research

    Keywords: recognition heuristic; judgmental forecasting; inference; heuristics.;

    References

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    1. Michael Smithson, 2010. "When less is more in the recognition heuristic," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 5(4), pages 230-243, July.
    2. Gerd Gigerenzer & Daniel G. Goldstein, 2011. "The recognition heuristic: A decade of research," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 6(1), pages 100-121, February.
    3. C. Philip Beaman & Philip T. Smith & Caren A. Frosch & Rachel McCloy, 2010. "Less-is-more effects without the recognition heuristic," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 5(4), pages 258-271, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:
    1. Julian N. Marewski & Rudiger F. Pohl & Oliver Vitouch, 2011. "Recognition-based judgments and decisions: What we have learned (so far)," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 6(5), pages 359-380, July.
    2. Jain, Kriti & Bearden, J. Neil & Filipowicz, Allan, 2013. "Depression and forecast accuracy: Evidence from the 2010 FIFA World Cup," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 69-79.
    3. Volker Thoma & Alwyn Williams, 2013. "The devil you know: The effect of brand recognition and product ratings on consumer choice," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 8(1), pages 34-44, January.

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