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Goals and plans in decision making

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  • David H. Krantz
  • Howard C. Kunreuther
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    Abstract

    We propose a constructed-choice model for general decision making. The model departs from utility theory and prospect theory in its treatment of multiple goals and it suggests several different ways in which context can affect choice. It is particularly instructive to apply this model to protective decisions, which are often puzzling. Among other anomalies, people insure against non-catastrophic events, underinsure against catastrophic risks, and allow extraneous factors to influence insurance purchases and other protective decisions. Neither expected-utility theory nor prospect theory can explain these anomalies satisfactorily. To apply this model to the above anomalies, we consider many different insurance-related goals, organized in a taxonomy, and we consider the effects of context on goals, resources, plans and decision rules. The paper concludes by suggesting some prescriptions for improving individual decision making with respect to protective measures.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Society for Judgment and Decision Making in its journal Judgment and Decision Making.

    Volume (Year): 2 (2007)
    Issue (Month): (June)
    Pages: 137-168

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    Handle: RePEc:jdm:journl:v:2:y:2007:i::p:137-168

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    Related research

    Keywords: goals; plans; decision making; catastrophic risk; insurance; utility theory; prospect theory; protective behavior;

    References

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    1. Colin F. Camerer & Howard Kunreuther, 1989. "Decision processes for low probability events: Policy implications," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 565-592.
    2. Hsee, Christopher K & Kunreuther, Howard C, 2000. " The Affection Effect in Insurance Decisions," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 141-59, March.
    3. Sunstein, Cass R. & Thaler, Richard H., 2003. "Libertarian Paternalism Is Not An Oxymoron," Working paper 320, Regulation2point0.
    4. Hogarth, Robin M & Kunreuther, Howard, 1995. "Decision Making under Ignorance: Arguing with Yourself," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 15-36, January.
    5. Matthew Rabin, 2001. "Diminishing Marginal Utility of Wealth Cannot Explain Risk Aversion," Game Theory and Information 0012002, EconWPA.
    6. Gerard Debreu, 1959. "Topological Methods in Cardinal Utility Theory," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 76, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    7. Gregory W. Fischer & Ziv Carmon & Dan Ariely & Gal Zauberman, 1999. "Goal-Based Construction of Preferences: Task Goals and the Prominence Effect," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(8), pages 1057-1075, August.
    8. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. " Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    9. Johnson, Eric J, et al, 1993. " Framing, Probability Distortions, and Insurance Decisions," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 35-51, August.
    10. Kunreuther, Howard & Sanderson, Warren & Vetschera, Rudolf, 1985. "A behavioral model of the adoption of protective activities," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 1-15, March.
    11. Loomes, Graham & Sugden, Robert, 1982. "Regret Theory: An Alternative Theory of Rational Choice under Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 805-24, December.
    12. Tversky, Amos & Slovic, Paul & Kahneman, Daniel, 1990. "The Causes of Preference Reversal," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(1), pages 204-17, March.
    13. Veronika K–bberling & Peter P. Wakker, 2004. "A Simple Tool for Qualitatively Testing, Quantitatively Measuring, and Normatively Justifying Savage's Subjective Expected Utility," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 135-145, 03.
    14. Michael Braun & Peter S. Fader & Eric T. Bradlow & Howard Kunreuther, 2006. "Modeling the "Pseudodeductible" in Insurance Claims Decisions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(8), pages 1258-1272, August.
    15. Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7656, David K. Levine.
    16. Craig R. Fox & Liat Hadar, 2006. ""Decisions from experience" = sampling error + prospect theory: Reconsidering Hertwig, Barron, Weber & Erev (2004)," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 1, pages 159-161, November.
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    Cited by:
    1. Ganna Pogrebna & David Krantz & Christian Schade & Claudia Keser, 2011. "Words versus actions as a means to influence cooperation in social dilemma situations," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 71(4), pages 473-502, October.
    2. Arora, Poonam & Peterson, Nicole D. & Krantz, David H. & Hardisty, David J. & Reddy, Kavita S., 2012. "To cooperate or not to cooperate: Using new methodologies and frameworks to understand how affiliation influences cooperation in the present and future," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 842-853.
    3. Botzen, W.J.W. & van den Bergh, J.C.J.M., 2012. "Risk attitudes to low-probability climate change risks: WTP for flood insurance," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 151-166.
    4. Botzen, W.J. Wouter & de Boer, Joop & Terpstra, Teun, 2013. "Framing of risk and preferences for annual and multi-year flood insurance," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 357-375.
    5. Vancouver, Jeffrey B. & Weinhardt, Justin M. & Vigo, Ronaldo, 2014. "Change one can believe in: Adding learning to computational models of self-regulation," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 56-74.
    6. Daniel Sutter & Marc Poitras, 2010. "Do people respond to low probability risks? Evidence from tornado risk and manufactured homes," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 181-196, April.
    7. Weber, Elke U. & Johnson, Eric J., 2012. "Psychology and behavioral economics lessons for the design of a green growth strategy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6240, The World Bank.
    8. Milch, Kerry F. & Weber, Elke U. & Appelt, Kirstin C. & Handgraaf, Michel J.J. & Krantz, David H., 2009. "From individual preference construction to group decisions: Framing effects and group processes," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 242-255, March.
    9. Todd McElroy & John J. Seta, 2007. "Framing the frame: How task goals determine the likelihood and direction of framing effects," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 2, pages 251-256, August.
    10. Susan Laury & Melayne McInnes & J. Swarthout, 2009. "Insurance decisions for low-probability losses," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 17-44, August.
    11. S. Wolfe, 2012. "Water Cognition and Cognitive Affective Mapping: Identifying Priority Clusters Within a Canadian Water Efficiency Community," Water Resources Management, Springer, vol. 26(10), pages 2991-3004, August.
    12. Kurt Carlson & Chris Janiszewski & Ralph Keeney & David Krantz & Howard Kunreuther & Mary Luce & J. Russo & Stijn Osselaer & Detlof Winterfeldt, 2008. "A theoretical framework for goal-based choice and for prescriptive analysis," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 241-254, December.

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