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Comparison of Eurovision Song Contest Simulation with Actual Results Reveals Shifting Patterns of Collusive Voting Alliances

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    Abstract

    The voting patterns in the Eurovision Song Contest have attracted attention from various researchers, spawning a small cross-disciplinary field of what might be called 'eurovisiopsephology' incorporating insights from politics, sociology and computer science. Although the outcome of the contest is decided using a simple electoral system, its single parameter - the number of countries casting a vote - varies from year to year. Analytical identification of statistically significant trends in voting patterns over a period of several years is therefore mathematically complex. Simulation provides a method for reconstructing the contest's history using Monte Carlo methods. Comparison of simulated histories with the actual history of the contest allows the identification of statistically significant changes in patterns of voting behaviour, without requiring a full mathematical solution. In particular, the period since the mid-90s has seen the emergence of large geographical voting blocs from previously small voting partnerships, which initially appeared in the early 90s. On at least two occasions, the outcome of the contest has been crucially affected by voting blocs. The structure of these blocs implies that a handful of centrally placed countries have a higher probability of being future winners.

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    File URL: http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/9/2/1/1.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation in its journal Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation.

    Volume (Year): 9 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 1

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    Handle: RePEc:jas:jasssj:2005-57-2

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    Related research

    Keywords: Simulation; Perl; Eurovision Song Contest; Voting Blocs; Collusive Voting;

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    Cited by:
    1. Ginsburgh, Victor & Noury, Abdul G., 2008. "The Eurovision Song Contest. Is voting political or cultural?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 41-52, March.
    2. Sofronis Clerides & Thanasis Stengos, 2012. "Love thy Neighbour, Love Thy Kin: Strategy and Bias in the Eurovision Song Contest," Ekonomia, Cyprus Economic Society and University of Cyprus, vol. 15(1), pages 22-44, Summer.
    3. Felbermayr, Gabriel J. & Toubal, Farid, 2010. "Cultural proximity and trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 279-293, February.
    4. repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00641280 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Frank, Björn & Krabel, Stefan, 2013. "Gens una sumus?!—Or does political ideology affect experts’ esthetic judgment of chess games?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 66-78.
    6. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00641280 is not listed on IDEAS

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