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Comparison of Eurovision Song Contest Simulation with Actual Results Reveals Shifting Patterns of Collusive Voting Alliances

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  • Derek Gatherer

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    Abstract

    The voting patterns in the Eurovision Song Contest have attracted attention from various researchers, spawning a small cross-disciplinary field of what might be called 'eurovisiopsephology' incorporating insights from politics, sociology and computer science. Although the outcome of the contest is decided using a simple electoral system, its single parameter - the number of countries casting a vote - varies from year to year. Analytical identification of statistically significant trends in voting patterns over a period of several years is therefore mathematically complex. Simulation provides a method for reconstructing the contest's history using Monte Carlo methods. Comparison of simulated histories with the actual history of the contest allows the identification of statistically significant changes in patterns of voting behaviour, without requiring a full mathematical solution. In particular, the period since the mid-90s has seen the emergence of large geographical voting blocs from previously small voting partnerships, which initially appeared in the early 90s. On at least two occasions, the outcome of the contest has been crucially affected by voting blocs. The structure of these blocs implies that a handful of centrally placed countries have a higher probability of being future winners.

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    File URL: http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/9/2/1/1.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation in its journal Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation.

    Volume (Year): 9 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 1

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    Handle: RePEc:jas:jasssj:2005-57-2

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    Related research

    Keywords: Simulation; Perl; Eurovision Song Contest; Voting Blocs; Collusive Voting;

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    Cited by:
    1. Abdul Ghafar Noury & Victor Ginsburgh, 2008. "The Eurovision song contest: is voting political or cultural?," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7746, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. Felbermayr Gabriel & Farid Toubal, 2010. "Cultural Proximity and Trade," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00641280, HAL.
    3. Felbermayr Gabriel & Farid Toubal, 2010. "Cultural Proximity and Trade," Post-Print halshs-00641280, HAL.
    4. Clerides, Sofronis & Stengos, Thanasis, 2006. "Love thy Neighbour, Love thy Kin: Strategy and Bias in the Eurovision Song Contest," CEPR Discussion Papers 5732, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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