Comparison of Eurovision Song Contest Simulation with Actual Results Reveals Shifting Patterns of Collusive Voting Alliances
AbstractThe voting patterns in the Eurovision Song Contest have attracted attention from various researchers, spawning a small cross-disciplinary field of what might be called 'eurovisiopsephology' incorporating insights from politics, sociology and computer science. Although the outcome of the contest is decided using a simple electoral system, its single parameter - the number of countries casting a vote - varies from year to year. Analytical identification of statistically significant trends in voting patterns over a period of several years is therefore mathematically complex. Simulation provides a method for reconstructing the contest's history using Monte Carlo methods. Comparison of simulated histories with the actual history of the contest allows the identification of statistically significant changes in patterns of voting behaviour, without requiring a full mathematical solution. In particular, the period since the mid-90s has seen the emergence of large geographical voting blocs from previously small voting partnerships, which initially appeared in the early 90s. On at least two occasions, the outcome of the contest has been crucially affected by voting blocs. The structure of these blocs implies that a handful of centrally placed countries have a higher probability of being future winners.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation in its journal Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation.
Volume (Year): 9 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Contact details of provider:
Simulation; Perl; Eurovision Song Contest; Voting Blocs; Collusive Voting;
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Abdul Ghafar Noury & Victor Ginsburgh, 2008.
"The Eurovision song contest: is voting political or cultural?,"
ULB Institutional Repository
2013/7746, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Ginsburgh, Victor & Noury, Abdul G., 2008. "The Eurovision Song Contest. Is voting political or cultural?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 41-52, March.
- Felbermayr Gabriel & Farid Toubal, 2010.
"Cultural Proximity and Trade,"
UniversitÃ© Paris1 PanthÃ©on-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers)
- Felbermayr Gabriel & Farid Toubal, 2010. "Cultural Proximity and Trade," Post-Print halshs-00641280, HAL.
- Clerides, Sofronis & Stengos, Thanasis, 2006.
"Love thy Neighbour, Love thy Kin: Strategy and Bias in the Eurovision Song Contest,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5732, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Sofronis Clerides & Thanasis Stengos, 2006. "Love thy Neighbor, Love thy Kin: Strategy and Bias in the Eurovision Song Contest," Working Papers 0605, University of Guelph, Department of Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Nigel Gilbert).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.