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Testing the Differences between the Determinants of Moody's and Standard & Poor's Ratings: An Application of Smooth Simulated Maximum Likelihood Estimation

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  • Moon, Choon-Geol
  • Stotsky, Janet G

Abstract

This paper extends previous studies on bond ratings by modeling as a system of equations the determinants of a municipality's decision to obtain a bond rating and the determinants of the municipality's rating for the two major rating agencies. Our model provides a framework to examine formally the references between the two agencies in the determinants of the ratings. We estimate the four-equation system by smooth simulated maximum likelihood estimation and then construct minimum x [superscript 2] tests on cross-equation restrictions based on optimal minimum distance estimation. Self-selection is found to be important in Moody's ratings while not in those of S&P. Split ratings appear to reflect differences in both the weight attached to specific determinants of the ratings and differences in the way the bonds are classified. Copyright 1993 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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  • Moon, Choon-Geol & Stotsky, Janet G, 1993. "Testing the Differences between the Determinants of Moody's and Standard & Poor's Ratings: An Application of Smooth Simulated Maximum Likelihood Estimation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 51-69, Jan.-Marc.
    • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:8:y:1993:i:1:p:51-69
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Randall K. Filer & Marjorie Honig, 2005. "Endogenous Pensions and Retirement Behavior," Economics Working Paper Archive at Hunter College 410, Hunter College Department of Economics.
    2. Winnie P. H. Poon & Junsoo Lee & Benton E. Gup, 2009. "Do Solicitations Matter in Bank Credit Ratings? Results from a Study of 72 Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 285-314, March.
    3. M. V. Pomazanov, 2022. "Second-order accuracy metrics for scoring models and their practical use," Papers 2204.07989, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
    4. Georgiou, K. & Domazakis, G.N. & Pappas, D. & Yannacopoulos, A.N., 2021. "Markov chain lumpability and applications to credit risk modelling in compliance with the International Financial Reporting Standard 9 framework," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 292(3), pages 1146-1164.
    5. Hang Luo & Linfeng Chen, 2019. "Bond yield and credit rating: evidence of Chinese local government financing vehicles," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 737-758, April.
    6. Walter Krämer & André Güttler, 2008. "On comparing the accuracy of default predictions in the rating industry," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 343-356, March.
    7. Bissoondoyal-Bheenick, Emawtee & Brooks, Robert & Yip, Angela Y.N., 2006. "Determinants of sovereign ratings: A comparison of case-based reasoning and ordered probit approaches," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 136-154, September.
    8. Alexandr Karminsky & Anatoly Peresetsky, 2009. "Ratings as Measure of Financial Risk: Evolution, Function and Usage," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 1-2, pages 86-102.
    9. Themistokles Lazarides & Evaggelos Drimpetas, 2016. "Defining the factors of Fitch rankings in the European banking sector," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 6(2), pages 315-339, August.
    10. Fausto Hernández-Trillo & Ricardo Smith-Ramírez, 2009. "Credit Ratings in the Presence of Bailout: The Case of Mexican Subnational Government Debt," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2009), pages 45-79, August.
    11. Kish, Richard J. & Hogan, Karen M. & Olson, Gerard, 1999. "Does the market perceive a difference in rating agencies?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 363-377.
    12. Sungchan Kim & Soyoung Park, 2016. "Credit Rating Inflation during the 2000s: Lessons from the U.S. State Governments," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 13-19.
    13. Ke Chen & Cheng Cheng & Shenggang Yang, 2011. "Are China’s sovereign credit ratings underestimated?," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 313-320, December.
    14. Eleimon Gonis & Salima Paul & Jon Tucker, 2012. "Rating or no rating? That is the question: an empirical examination of UK companies," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(8), pages 709-735, September.
    15. Poon, Winnie P. H., 2003. "Are unsolicited credit ratings biased downward?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 593-614, April.
    16. Shen, Chung-Hua & Huang, Yu-Li & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2012. "Asymmetric benchmarking in bank credit rating," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 171-193.
    17. Inhwan Ko & Aseem Prakash, 2022. "Signaling climate resilience to municipal bond markets: does membership in adaptation-focused voluntary clubs affect bond rating?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 171(1), pages 1-19, March.
    18. Al-Sakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2010. "Split sovereign ratings and rating migrations in emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 79-97, June.
    19. Rasha Alsakka & Owain ap Gwilym, 2010. "The Extent and Causes of Sovereign Split Ratings," Working Papers 10008, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
    20. Bissoondoyal-Bheenick, Emawtee, 2005. "An analysis of the determinants of sovereign ratings," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 251-280, February.

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