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The performance of heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation robust tests: a Monte Carlo study with an application to the three-factor Fama-French asset-pricing model

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Author Info

  • Surajit Ray

    (Bear Stearns Asset Management, New York, USA)

  • N. E. Savin

    (Department of Economics, Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa, USA)

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    Abstract

    This paper illustrates the pitfalls of the conventional heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation robust (HAR) Wald test and the advantages of new HAR tests developed by Kiefer and Vogelsang in 2005 and by Phillips, Sun and Jin in 2003 and 2006. The illustrations use the 1993 Fama-French three-factor model. The null that the intercepts are zero is tested for 5-year, 10-year and longer sub-periods. The conventional HAR test with asymptotic P-values rejects the null for most 5-year and 10-year sub-periods. By contrast, the null is not rejected by the new HAR tests. This conflict is explained by showing that inferences based on the conventional HAR test are misleading for the sample sizes used in this application. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.972
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    File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2008-v23.1/
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

    Volume (Year): 23 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 91-109
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    Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:23:y:2008:i:1:p:91-109

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    References

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    1. Phillips, Peter C.B., 2005. "Hac Estimation By Automated Regression," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 116-142, February.
    2. John H. Cochrane, 1999. "New facts in finance," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q III, pages 36-58.
    3. Kiefer, Nicholas M. & Vogelsang, Timothy J., 2005. "A New Asymptotic Theory for Heteroskedasticity-Autocorrelation Robust Tests," Working Papers 05-08, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
    4. repec:att:wimass:9220 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    6. Peter C. B. Phillips & Yixiao Sun & Sainan Jin, 2006. "Spectral Density Estimation And Robust Hypothesis Testing Using Steep Origin Kernels Without Truncation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(3), pages 837-894, 08.
    7. Sainan Jin & Peter Phillips & Yixiao Sun, 2004. "Consistent HAC Estimation and Robust Regression Testing Using Sharp Origin Kernels with No Truncation," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 299, Econometric Society.
    8. Kiefer, Nicholas M. & Vogelsang, Timothy J., 2002. "Heteroskedasticity-Autocorrelation Robust Testing Using Bandwidth Equal To Sample Size," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(06), pages 1350-1366, December.
    9. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
    10. Donald W.K. Andrews & Christopher J. Monahan, 1990. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 942, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    11. Breusch, T S & Pagan, A R, 1979. "A Simple Test for Heteroscedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1287-94, September.
    12. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 631-53, October.
    13. Michael Jansson, 2004. "The Error in Rejection Probability of Simple Autocorrelation Robust Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(3), pages 937-946, 05.
    14. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
    15. Gonçalves, Sílvia & Vogelsang, Timothy J., 2011. "Block Bootstrap Hac Robust Tests: The Sophistication Of The Naive Bootstrap," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(04), pages 745-791, August.
    16. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. " Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    17. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
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    Cited by:
    1. Yixiao Sun & Peter C.B. Phillips & Sainan Jin, 2010. "Power Maximization and Size Control in Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Robust Tests with Exponentiated Kernels," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1749, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

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