IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jae/japmet/v1y1986i3p235-53.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Unemployment, Disequilibrium and the Short Run Phillips Curve: An Econometric Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Quandt, Richard E
  • Rosen, Harvey S

Abstract

The paper specifies a disequilibrium model for the aggregate labor market consisting of demand and supply functions for labor, an adjustment equation for wages as well as for prices, a transactions equation and, finally, an equation that relates measured unemployment to vacancies and to excess demand. The model has a more sophisticated treatment of dynamics than earlier disequilibrium models, and uses measured unemployment as an endogenous variable. Two of the error terms are assumed to be serially correlated and the coefficients are estimated by maximum likelihood. The parameter estimates and the goodness-of-fit are satisfactory and the model's implications for the behavior of several important variables are sensible. Excess demand estimates computed in various ways are reasonable. The model is used to estimate the natural rate of unemployment as well as a short run Phillips curve. Finally, the stability properties ofthe model are analyzed by considering the eigenvalues of the system; they are found to have moduli less than one.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Quandt, Richard E & Rosen, Harvey S, 1986. "Unemployment, Disequilibrium and the Short Run Phillips Curve: An Econometric Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(3), pages 235-253, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:1:y:1986:i:3:p:235-53
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0883-7252%28198607%291%3A3%3C235%3AUDATSR%3E2.0.CO%3B2-Z&origin=bc
    File Function: full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to JSTOR subscribers. See http://www.jstor.org for details.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laffont, Jean-Jacques & Monfort, Alain, 1979. "Disequilibrium econometrics in dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2-3), pages 353-361.
    2. Barro, Robert J & Sahasakul, Chaipat, 1983. "Measuring the Average Marginal Tax Rate from the Individual Income Tax," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(4), pages 419-452, October.
    3. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1985. "Equilibrium Wage Distribution," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(379), pages 595-618, September.
    4. Hamermesh, Daniel S., 1987. "The demand for labor in the long run," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & R. Layard (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 429-471, Elsevier.
    5. Joseph G. Altonji, 1982. "The Intertemporal Substitution Model of Labour Market Fluctuations: An Empirical Analysis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 49(5), pages 783-824.
    6. Burkett, John P., 1981. "Marginal and conditional probabilities of excess demand," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 159-162.
    7. Sarantis, Nicholas C., 1981. "Employment, labor supply and real wages in market disequilibrium," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 335-354.
    8. Barro, Robert J. & Sahasakul, Chaipat, 1983. "Measuring the Average Marginal Tax Rates from Social Security and the Individual Income Tax," Working Papers 29, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    9. Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou, 1987. "An Aggregative Disequilibrium Model of the U.S. Labour Market," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 848, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    10. Quandt, Richard E., 1981. "Autocorrelated errors in simple disequilibrium models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 55-61.
    11. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Rapping, Leonard A, 1969. "Real Wages, Employment, and Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(5), pages 721-754, Sept./Oct.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Araujo, Ricardo Azevedo & Loureiro, Paulo Roberto & Souza, Nathalia Almeida, 2011. "An Empirical Evaluation of an Evolutionary Game Theory Model of the Labor Market," MPRA Paper 30408, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Quandt, Richard E & Rosen, Harvey S, 1989. "Endogenous Output in an Aggregate Model of the Labor Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(3), pages 394-400, August.
    3. Carmen Aina & Fernanda Mazzotta & Lavinia Parisi, 2010. "Do Flexible Employment Contracts Change Household Income Differences in Italy?," Working Papers 129, SEMEQ Department - Faculty of Economics - University of Eastern Piedmont.
    4. Jacquinot, Pascal & Mihoubi, F., 1996. "Dynamique et hétérogénéité de l’emploi en déséquilibre," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 72(2), pages 113-148, juin.
    5. Siebeck, Karin & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 1987. "Ein einfaches kontinuierliches Anpassungsmodell für den Arbeits- und Gütermarkt: Einige empirische Befunde für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland von 1965 bis 1985," Discussion Papers, Series I 234, University of Konstanz, Department of Economics.
    6. Holt, Matthew T., 1991. "A Multi-Market Bounded Prices Model Under Rational Expectations: The Case of Corn and Soybeans in the U.S," 1991 Annual Meeting, August 4-7, Manhattan, Kansas 271199, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    7. Kang‐Soek Lee & Richard A. Werner, 2023. "Are lower interest rates really associated with higher growth? New empirical evidence on the interest rate thesis from 19 countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 3960-3975, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Quandt, Richard E & Rosen, Harvey S, 1989. "Endogenous Output in an Aggregate Model of the Labor Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(3), pages 394-400, August.
    2. Dr. Belkacem Laabas , Dr. Weshah Razzak, "undated". "Taxes, Natural Resource Endowment, and the Supply of Labor: New Evidence," API-Working Paper Series 1005, Arab Planning Institute - Kuwait, Information Center.
    3. Mulligan Casey B, 2001. "Aggregate Implications of Indivisible Labor," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-35, April.
    4. Casey B. Mulligan, 1999. "Substitution over Time: Another Look at Life-Cycle Labor Supply," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1998, volume 13, pages 75-152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Casey B. Mulligan, 1998. "Microfoundations and macro implications of indivisible labor," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 126, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    6. B. Laabas & W. A. Razzak, 2010. "A Contribution Towards the New Zealand's Tax Reform," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2010_35, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    7. Casey B. Mulligan, 1997. "Pecuniary Incentives to Work in the U.S. during World War II," NBER Working Papers 6326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Kuroda, Sachiko & Yamamoto, Isamu, 2008. "Estimating Frisch labor supply elasticity in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 566-585, December.
    9. Roger N. Waud, 1985. "Tax Aversion, Deficits and the Tax Rate-Tax Revenue Relationship," NBER Working Papers 1533, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Ilzetzki, Ethan, 2011. "Fiscal policy and debt dynamics in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5666, The World Bank.
    11. Norman Gemmell & Richard Kneller & Ismael Sanz, 2014. "The growth effects of tax rates in the OECD," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1217-1255, November.
    12. James J. Heckman & Lance J. Lochner & Petra E. Todd, 2008. "Earnings Functions and Rates of Return," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(1), pages 1-31.
    13. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Keith Kuester & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2015. "Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(11), pages 3352-3384, November.
    14. Woodbury, Stephen A & Hamermesh, Daniel S, 1992. "Taxes, Fringe Benefits and Faculty," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(2), pages 287-296, May.
    15. Bernanke, Ben S, 1986. "Employment, Hours, and Earnings in the Depression: An Analysis of EightManufacturing Industries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 82-109, March.
    16. Portes, Richard, et al, 1987. "Macroeconomic Planning and Disequilibrium: Estimates for Poland, 1955-1980," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(1), pages 19-41, January.
    17. Barro, Robert J & Sahasakul, Chaipat, 1986. "Average Marginal Tax Rates from Social Security and the Individual Income Tax," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages 555-566, October.
    18. Robert J. Barro & Charles J. Redlick, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects From Government Purchases and Taxes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 51-102.
    19. Douglas Dacy & Fuad Hasanov, 2005. "The Rate of Interest or the Rate of Return: Estimating Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution," Macroeconomics 0510012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Sala, Luca & Söderström, Ulf & Trigari, Antonella, 2010. "The Output Gap, the Labor Wedge, and the Dynamic Behavior of Hours," CEPR Discussion Papers 8005, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D2 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. Unemployment, disequilibrium and the short run phillips curve: An econometric approach (Journal of Applied Econometrics 1986) in ReplicationWiki

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:1:y:1986:i:3:p:235-53. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing or Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0883-7252/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.