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Testing long-run PPP with infinite-variance returns

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Author Info
Barry Falk (Department of Economics, Iowa State University, USA)
Chun-Hsuan Wang (Department of Finance, Ming Chuan University, Taiwan)

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Abstract

This paper investigates the long-run purchasing power parity hypothesis when exchange rate returns and inflation rates are assumed to be heavy-tailed stochastic processes. More specifically, residual-based and likelihood-ratio-based cointegration tests of PPP that explicitly allow for infinite-variance innovations are applied to monthly data (1973:1-1999:12) for Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. Our test results are marginally less supportive of PPP when the innovations are assumed to be infinite-variance, α-stable processes. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.711
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File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2003-v18.4/
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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 18 (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 471-484
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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:18:y:2003:i:4:p:471-484

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Mark P. Taylor & Ronald MacDonald, 1991. "Exchange Rate Economics: A Survey," IMF Working Papers 91/62, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Pesavento, Elena, 2004. "Analytical evaluation of the power of tests for the absence of cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 349-384, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Patel, Jayendu, 1990. "Purchasing Power Parity as a Long-Run Relation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(4), pages 367-79, Oct.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
  5. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. MacDonald, Ronald, 1993. "Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity: Is It for Real?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 690-95, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Franses, Philip Hans & Lucas, Andre, 1998. "Outlier Detection in Cointegration Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 459-68, October.
  9. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 740R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Feb 1986. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1993. "Long-run purchasing power parity during the recent float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 181-192, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Kugler, Peter & Lenz, Carlos, 1993. "Multivariate Cointegration Analysis and the Long-Run Validity of PPP," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(1), pages 180-84, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Koedijk, Kees G & Kool, Clemens J M, 1992. "Tail Estimates of East European Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(1), pages 83-96, January.
  15. Akgiray, Vedat & Geoffrey Booth, G. & Seifert, Bruce, 1988. "Distribution properties of Latin American black market exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 37-48, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Enders, Walter, 1988. "ARIMA and Cointegration Tests of PPP under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(3), pages 504-08, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Caner, Mehmet, 1998. "Tests for cointegration with infinite variance errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 155-175, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Boswijk, Peter & Franses, Philip Hans, 1992. "Dynamic Specification and Cointegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 369-81, August.
  19. Lucas, Andr?, 1997. "Cointegration Testing Using Pseudolikelihood Ratio Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(02), pages 149-169, April. [Downloadable!]
  20. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jonathan B. Hill, 2004. "Strong Orthogonal Decompositions and Nonlinear Impulse Response Functions for Infinite-Variance Processes," Working Papers 0408, Florida International University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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